I’m an expert in hostage negotiations – this is what’s going on in Israel behind the scenes

Ten days after they kidnapped 199 people from Israel, Hamas released a video of 21-year-old Mia Shem, a French-Israeli woman who was abducted from the Nova music festival. In the film, Mia is seen receiving medical attention for her injured arm from someone off-camera. She states that she is being well looked after, pleads for help to bring her home, and looks visibly scared.

The video offered our first glimpse into the captivity that these hostages are enduring. It is what’s known as a “proof of life” – confirmation that the person has been taken hostage (that’s not always clear at first), and that they are still alive (that there is something to be negotiated over). While it is impossible to imagine the distress her family felt at seeing Mia’s condition, the video will likely be a source of some hope and comfort; their daughter and sister is still alive. For negotiators, a proof of life also confirms they are in contact with the right group; it is not uncommon for people to insert themselves into the process in the hope of intercepting a ransom payment or disrupting discussions.

The short film is a form of communication. We must assume that Mia’s words were scripted, and Hamas are using her to send a number of messages: to their supporters and base, that they are caring for the hostages; to the Israeli government, that they are powerful and defiant; and to the wider world, they are attempting to undermine the widespread narrative of their barbarity.

It is likely not an accident that they chose a woman. The vast majority of hostages globally are men; the presence of a female captive increases the pressure to negotiate. From the very outset, there have been calls for the women and children to be released, and some have even offered to trade places with them.

Her status as a French-Israeli dual national may also have been a consideration; the French have a long history of negotiating with terrorists and political groups to secure the release of their citizens. President Emmanuel Macron told reporters this week that negotiations were progressing well, and it is reported that he plans to visit Israel soon. To complicate this situation yet further, by drawing other countries into the hostage crisis, Hamas creates the potential for division among Israel’s allies.

The authorities will now be poring over every last detail of the video, looking for clues – sounds, sights, words, body language, furniture, the type of lighting – as to where it was filmed, by whom, and whether Mia is being held above or below ground. Their technicians will be analysing the video’s metadata for information about when or where it was filmed; the New York Times reported that its own analysis suggested the film was shot six days before it was released.

Mass hostage takings are rare because they are very difficult to pull off; only a handful of cases have occurred in recent decades. In 1996, hundreds of hostages were held by a leftist guerrilla group at the Japanese embassy in Lima, Peru; in 2002, Chechen separatists took 850 hostages in the Moscow theatre siege; hundreds of westerners were kept as human shields by Saddam Hussein during the first Gulf War in 1990; and 52 Americans were held hostage for 444 days at the US embassy in Tehran in 1979. Things often don’t end well for hostage takers in these scenarios.

This mass hostage case is unique because it also incorporates a number of additional rare elements. The hostages are being held in a war zone, while most kidnappings occur in the grey area between stability and chaos. Multiple nationalities are held together, which complicates negotiations as well as diplomatic relations. And tensions between the principal parties – Israel and Hamas – are at boiling point, which makes it difficult to establish the essential trust needed to begin and progress talks.

In most kidnappings, history can help you to predict the future; hostage takers normally have standard operating procedures that provide a guide to how things will play out. Not so here. In almost 30 years in or around hostage cases, including that of a member of my own family, I have never known a kidnapping as complex and unpredictable as this.

Qatar and Turkey have claimed to be involved in negotiations and the French president has made positive noises about progress. There are also reports that former diplomats and intelligence agents have been tasked with working their contacts in the region.

The multinational nature of the case will require careful coordination between governments to ensure consistency of messaging, and to prevent Hamas from playing them off against one another.

The hostages are just one aspect of a multifaceted scenario, which encompasses Israeli threats to send in ground forces, intense diplomatic efforts to prevent the conflict from spreading, and an unfolding humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

Make no mistake, the situation for these hostages is perilous. And yet, even in these circumstances, we can and must maintain hope. I have seen hostages walk out to freedom in the most unlikely of circumstances. Former Church of England envoy Terry Waite’s family were told early on in his captivity in Beirut in the late 1980s that he was dead, only for him to eventually emerge safely from a plane at Brize Norton airfield, Oxfordshire, a few years later.

Hostage taking is one of the most effective tools of asymmetric warfare precisely because it is so human in nature. Wars in distant lands generate almost clinical analysis, but in hostage cases we can see ourselves; what if it were my son, wife, father, partner?

Israel has a reputation for never leaving anyone behind. As tensions rage, I hope the hostages’ loved ones can take solace in that fact.

Rachel Briggs OBE a leading expert on hostage taking. She is the CEO of The Clarity Factory and an associate fellow of Chatham House