What will happen in Iran now President Raisi is dead – and who will be his successor?

On Sunday, Ebrahim Raisi, president of the Islamic Republic, died in a helicopter crash in Iran’s Varzaqan region. But what was initially a huge shock is now gradually giving way to planning and crisis management.

It was more than 40 years ago when Mohammad Javad Bahonar and Mohammad Hossein Rajaei, then prime minister and president, were assassinated. The government has not had another domestic crisis – until now.

Raisi, 63, died alongside Iran’s foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and two senior local officials on board the helicopter, the state-run IRNA news agency reported.

Speculation has been fierce since: mainly surrounding what Ayatollah Khamenei and his inner circle – of which Raisi was a part – were plotting for the post-Khamenei era and what they had decided.

After all, the first step in planning for the succession of the supreme leader (and for uniformity in the government) was taken three years ago with the presidential elections. This was when Raisi was handed the presidency without any rivals, due to Khamenei’s approval and support.

But what does Khamenei really want? He’s an 85-year-old man. His health (and the progress of his cancer) is in question. Rumours abound that he wants a government entirely to his taste – and to decide on the next leader before he dies.

He has filled his parliament with revolutionary forces committed to Wilayat-al-Faqih (guardianship of the jurist). The Guardian Council was emptied of opponents. Any former supporters who could cause problems for him were eliminated.

In the Islamic Republic, the test for trial and error is held only once – and if someone makes a mistake, they are not given a second chance.

So, why was Raisi picked for the Iranian presidency?

Well, the answer is that Khamenei and his household needed someone very close and trusted to serve as a successor. Raisi was an obedient supporter of the Islamic Republic’s regime and had passed many a test to prove his loyalty and unquestionable allegiance to Khamenei. He was picked so that he could, as the constitution states, play an interim role when the supreme leader passes away.

The constitution of the Islamic Republic is clear on this issue, but it doesn’t state how long this three-person council would be able to rule until a new supreme leader is picked.

I believe Raisi was put there as an interim candidate – not to become supreme leader, but a trusted figure who, if necessary, could pave the path for the candidate desired by Khamenei.

Khamenei (and those close to him) would not allow any untrusted or rival figure to run in the 2021 presidential elections. And, now that Raisi has been killed, the Islamic Republic has only 50 days (until early summer) to pick a new president. What will they do?

Without the president and the foreign minister, the Islamic Republic now has two challenges.

First, they face foreign policy challenges relating to regional issues, neighbour relations, the war in Gaza and Iran’s nuclear programme. Second, they must look at the expediency of the regime and the future of the Islamic Republic.

It appears that rival political groups will not boycott the elections this time and will instead participate – for their own survival. But it appears unlikely for the incoming president to be someone Khamenei doesn’t trust – or hasn’t already chosen.

It is instead likely that, in the coming weeks, a clerical figure trusted by the regime and loyal to Khamenei and his group will run for presidency. Or, perhaps they will welcome well-known moderate figures such as Mohammad Javad Zarif?

Zarif had the opportunity to return to the political scene next year, when the situation for succession of the supreme leader would have been clearer. But Raisi’s sudden death has provided new challenges for the circles around Khamenei. We now face an unpredictable presidential election.

Raisi was never there to be a leader. He had been appointed to pave the way for another leader. The regime’s next president will, in the style of Raisi, work not for Iran and its people – but for the Islamic Republic and to realise the demands of the current supreme leader.