The Iran nuclear deal is dead – leaders at next week’s G7 summit should accept that once and for all

As G7 leaders gather in Biarritz this week, the ongoing disagreements over what to do with Iran will be at the top of the agenda. During his visit to the UK last week, national security adviser John Bolton urged British officials to adopt a harder line against Tehran, with the proposed Gulf Maritime Task Force suggesting this may have gained some traction.

The past year has seen European allies contort themselves in attempting to keep the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – i.e. the Iran nuclear deal – alive. Perhaps the penny will finally drop this weekend that not only is that not possible, but that it should no longer be attempted.

The JCPOA was fundamentally flawed from the start. The composition of the negotiating team completely excluded those on Iran’s doorstep, with policy set by governments thousands of miles away, in an approach reminiscent of a bygone colonial era. The funding of violent proxies, in the form of Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis was entirely overlooked in a way it never would have been had the Gulf states or Israel been at the table. In fact, the deal freed up extra funds which have flowed to these groups in ever greater volumes.

And what has the result been? A greater propensity for Houthi rocket launches at civilian targets in Saudi Arabia, the deployment of thousands of Hezbollah foot soldiers in Syria, and the constant bombardment of Southern Israel by Iranian funded Hamas rockets. Upon the JCPOA’s agreement, Barack Obama said he was “confident” that the deal would “meet the national security needs of the United States and our allies.'' By this measure alone it has demonstrably failed.

The current situation in the Gulf has seen Tehran actively escalate tensions. The seizing of the UK flagged Stena Impero by the Revolutionary Guard last month is part of a wider effort to blackmail European nations into keeping JCPOA funds flowing, as US sanctions continue to bite. If the Europeans think last weekend’s release of the Gibraltar tanker is going to placate Iran and bring an end to their ramping up of tensions then they’re severely misguided.

The Strait of Hormuz, the world’s busiest shipping corridor, now requires commercial shipping to be escorted by allied naval vessels. Combined with their funding of violent, terrorist extremists, it’s clear that since the JCPOA’s implementation, the national security interests of the United States’ allies in the region have far from improved.

Whatever the noises coming out of European capitals, it should now be clear that the JCPOA is dead. Even with their much-mooted Special Purpose Vehicle, London, Paris, Berlin and Brussels have limited power to encourage business to risk attracting the ire of American authorities by setting up in Iran. Far from encouraging the Europeans to fight their corner, Tehran’s latest actions have likely pushed them closer towards the Trump administration’s way of thinking.

These latest Iranian actions against shipping are the desperate acts of a nation whose funding sources for region destabilisation is drying up. Domestic unrest has long lain beneath the surface as Iranians enduring a sluggish economy and falling living standards see billions go abroad to Tehran’s network of proxies.

The imposition of sanctions may ultimately see the regime turn its attention to domestic matters, however, what we are seeing in the interim is a new, more direct phase of Iranian belligerence, which requires fewer resources and depends on a docile response from the international community.

The response to such belligerence cannot simply be further appeasement. That route has been tried and that route has failed. We can see first-hand the consequences the previous attempt at this approach has had, with Iranian armed Houthis continuing to cause death and destruction in Yemen and Hezbollah controlling large swathes of Syrian territory.

The security threat Iran poses to both regional and international security is real and urgent. Attempting to revive the failed JCPOA is not the way to combat them.

In Biarritz this week, European leaders have a choice. Do they continue to ignore reality and try and keep the nuclear deal alive with little more than warm words? Or, do they ally themselves with the United States in recognition that the threat Iran poses was never one adequately thwarted by the JCPOA? The choice is obvious; let’s hope that for G7 leaders the penny has finally dropped.

Dr Majid Rafizadeh is a businessman, board member, president, scholar and political scientist at Harvard University