The row over Huawei hides a £33bn question about the future of our digital infrastructure

The prime minister’s controversial decision to allow the Chinese telecoms company Huawei to help build Britain’s new 5G network has raised security concerns among some senior ministers and prompted a full-scale leak inquiry. But hidden behind this controversy lies an urgent truth: whoever we choose to support us, the UK needs to build a digital network fit for the late 21st century. And it needs to act now.

Digital connectivity is not a luxury, it’s an essential utility. It’s as important to our society and economy as electricity or water. And like any essential utility we only realise how important it is to our lives when we lose it.

Demand for data, and therefore speed and reliability, is growing rapidly and will only increase further as homes and businesses adopt smart technologies.

The UK already has a strong digital economy underpinned by an extensive superfast broadband network that broadly meets the needs of today’s consumers. But there is a danger in complacency.

The superfast broadband programme is coming to an end, with 98% of UK premises on track to receive it. But it is no longer enough. The country needs to prepare for the future.

The National Infrastructure Commission, the government’s independent advisor on the UK’s long-term infrastructure strategy up to 2050, makes a simple case: the UK needs a nationwide plan to deliver full fibre broadband to all homes and businesses by 2033.

It is one of the key recommendations in our national assessment and the government has vowed to respond later this year.

So what exactly does this switch involve? The UK faces a choice between continuing to upgrade the existing copper network, or replacing what is left of it with fibre optics.

Full fibre, a connection without any copper, is the best available broadband technology on the horizon. It offers consistent, gigabit speeds which are less affected by rain and flooding, uses less energy, costs less to maintain and has no foreseeable capacity constraints.

Such an investment is not cost-free. Analysis for the commission estimates that over 30 years building and maintaining a full fibre network would cost £33.4bn – about £11.5bn more that incremental upgrades of the existing system. Most of the funding will come from the private sector, but the government will need to support rural areas so everyone can benefit.

One thing is sure – it would be a risky bet to assume that the UK can prosper without it.

Some have already seen the future. Virgin Media, for example, which is Britain’s main cable provider, is increasingly rolling out fibre as it expands its network into new areas, partly because deploying and then maintaining new cable is more expensive that full fibre.

Full fibre, of course, can deliver much higher upload and download speeds. And recent history shows that as consumer bandwidth increases, sites and applications will quickly adapt to those faster speeds.

Today video is the main driver of consumer bandwidth demand. When BBC iPlayer launched in 2007 it required 0.5 megabits per second (Mbps) to watch programmes on demand. Today iPlayer offers more sophisticated services: Ultra HD programmes like Blue Planet need 20Mbps and live events like the World Cup 36 Mbps.

This is all before we consider the impact of the internet of things – innovations in the network infrastructure and appliances with digital connections – and the development of connected and autonomous vehicles, and integrated traffic signals. Full fibre is needed wherever people live, work or travel – including along our major road and rail networks.

It is entirely possible that bandwidth demand will exceed the capabilities of a copper network within the 10-20 year horizon required to roll out a full fibre network.

If the UK wants a digital infrastructure that is fit for purpose, it needs to start making some big decisions.

That is partly why the risk-reward debate around Huawei has been so fiery. The need is urgent, and the Chinese firm has quickly built a low-cost lead in 5G technology, securing contracts in Turkey, South Africa and others.

Security concerns are real and pressing, but so is the economic imperative of 5G and a full fibre broadband network. These are strategic decisions as much as political ones, and will define Britain’s place in the 21st century global economy. However these advances are achieved, action needs to be taken now.

Sir John Armitt CBE is chair of the National Infrastructure Commission.