Cancelling HS2 is only the start of the Conservatives’ Great Train Robbery

Once Rishi Sunak confirms the cancellation of the northern leg of HS2, the high-speed rail line will stand as a permanent and embarrassing monument to British failure.

With as much as £28bn now spent and probably the same amount again needed to finish it, HS2 – a project first proposed in 2008 – remains shrouded in mystery. It may or may not run from Euston. It could end up as a stub of a line linking an unknown suburb of west London with a station a mile from Birmingham city centre. Dubbed the Acton to Aston shuttle, it will attract few users.

A half-built HS2 deserves to reign supreme as by far the worst of the many planning disasters that have resulted in widespread public cynicism about the very nature of our democratic system.

Sunak, who is expected to finally lay out his plans for HS2 in his first conference speech as prime minister today, may believe that he is boxing clever and pleasing the masses by diverting money from a much-criticised scheme. He could not be more wrong.

The money saved is notional, future borrowing that will now no longer take place but which cannot be reallocated as this phase of HS2 had no clear budget earmarked in the government’s spending plans. There is no magic money tree, as his predecessor number three once said.

Meanwhile, the first section will have to be completed at a cost of £140m per week for several years. Many people may not have liked HS2, but they will dislike this continued level of spending on a scheme that will now serve no purpose and crucially not “level up” anywhere, apart from a small part of the West Midlands.

And then there is the reputational risk. Companies look to governments for stability and strategy, but this decision will only undermine the government’s reputation which was already damaged by Sunak’s U-turn on the climate crisis. Granted, the soaring cost of this rail project put ministers in a difficult position. But scrapping the Birmingham-to-Manchester leg is a kneejerk response that is ill-thought-out.

Any promises about new railway infrastructure for the north, to replace what would have been built for HS2, are problematic. First, any new plans will take time to develop, and therefore nothing will be visible before the general election.

Secondly, cutting the section of HS2 that was to run between Birmingham and Crewe, leaves the next phase, between Crewe and Manchester Airport, in limbo. Originally, this was intended to be part of Northern Powerhouse Rail – HS3, as it once was – but without this key section of HS2, it is difficult to see how the rest can ever be delivered.

Another question is about what happens north of Birmingham. Clearly, the intention is that there will be a connection to the West Coast Main Line. But this is already a heavily used railway corridor, which was why it was felt necessary to build an entirely new route. Not only will high-speed trains from London have to slow down on their journey north past Birmingham, but there will also be difficulties in finding paths for them.

The roots of HS2’s problems run deep. When the project was given the green light in 2012, it was designed as the world’s fastest and most high-tech railway, with no money spared, to appease Nimby objectors along the route. Then, a mix of ministerial neglect and a lack of basic project management skills led to costs running out of control. HS2 Ltd, the government-owned company running the scheme, was neither efficient nor transparent, leading to perennial overspending.

Even today, no one can say how much the project will cost or when the first train will operate. The Tories inherited the idea from Labour, but in 13 years at the helm, they have never got to grips with or, indeed, explained why they supported it.

Boris Johnson was a great fan, but most other leading Tories have been sceptical. They will be cheering about it when the announcement is finally made, but on reflection, they may realise this is a panicked response when a pause for thought might have been wiser.

When it is finally completed, at the end of this decade, the Acton to Aston shuttle will stand as a permanent reminder of Tory incompetence and short-termism.