Why Michael Gove might still be in with a chance as UK prime minister

Has the Conservative party just made a terrible mistake? Will they now have to take Boris Johnson off the ballot paper and put Michael Gove on it instead?

Whatever the reported argument between Boris Johnson and his partner Carrie Symonds was all about, she appears to have accused him of being “spoiled”. Well, there’s a thing. Those who know him wouldn’t be shocked. Boris’ main rival for the top job – Michael Gove, not the patsy Jeremy Hunt – must wonder what might have been if this embarrassing incident has occurred about a week ago. It might even tempt Gove to believe that maybe it is not too late. I doubt Gove's ambition has been permanently becalmed.

I noticed something Michael Gove said during the Channel 4 TV debate last Sunday. I know, it seems like a lifetime ago now, but in the blue haze of the last week’s sound bites, boasts and evasions, it struck me as being one of the few moments of real personal candour. Reflecting on his adoptive parents, Gove said that they had chosen him, and, in return, (words to the effect that) every day he wanted to repay to them the faith and love they had showed him.

It was, literally, a humbling moment. Though regarded as a posh sort of character, and undoubtedly prosperous, Gove was, so we see now, not quite a full member of the Notting Hill set. Maybe something to do with his background, but he was not quite one of them. He never had the kind of emotionally charged backstory that Esther McVey and Sajid Javid could relate to; but neither did he enjoy the sort of smooth, gilded path to power that his later associates, the likes of David Cameron, George Osborne and Boris Johnson, enjoyed.

So failing to reach the very top of the old greasy pole now, he may well feel a more acute disappointment, given that urge to honour his parents and, in a way, to prove to himself, his party and his country that merit and ability count for more than just being a toff. I think he genuinely wanted to go up against Boris Johnson. He thought he would have been the better man, and the long four-week campaign in the country would have demonstrated the fact. He might have just beaten Boris. Maybe Boris thought so too. Maybe that’s why Boris nobbled him.

The assumption must be that, after two failed stabs at the leadership – the expression is deliberate – this chapter in the Gove-Johnson psychodrama is drawing to a close. In 2016, so the wags have it, Gove stabbed Boris in the back. Now Boris (his allies are quoted as boasting) has stabbed Gove in the front. He wanted Gove “humiliated”. Revenge has been served, cold and sweet. The Old Etonian Boris outmanoeuvred the grammar school oik Gove. The great Tory age of meritocracy, roughly spanning the eras of Heath, Thatcher, Major and Hague, is coming to an end.

What happens next is partly a matter for Gove, and partly a matter for Boris. Gove served in the same cabinet as Boris under Theresa May, and was always polite about his colleague. They cohabited at least. But could Gove serve under Boris? He has publicly indicated his willingness. He instinctively likes to be on the inside, and may have found his time on the backbenches after May sacked him in 2016 frustrating. Maybe a move to another suitable department, such as Defence or the Home Office. Even though he finished third, it seems unlikely he will beat Javid, who came fourth, to the Treasury. Or he could stay at Defra, where there is important work to be done, and where he will retain some say on Brexit. It’s worth mentioning that, personalities aside, his publically stated policy on Europe is little different to Boris Johnson’s. Privately he might be more willing to embrace an Efta option, as was rumoured to be the case during the long process of Brexit talks.

If he did take a role in the Johnson administration, he might have to rescind the judgment he made on Boris in the 2016 farce; “Boris cannot provide the leadership or build and unite the team required in order to take this country forward, both to implement the result of the referendum last week and but also to provide the strong collective leadership — the team captaincy — that this country requires.”

When he thought he might be on threshold of Number 10 in 2016 he refused to commit himself to offering Boris a job; and, in his campaign launch this time round he couldn’t resist this wisecrack: “Mr Johnson, whatever you do, don't pull out. I know you have before... but the Conservative Party membership deserve a choice.”

Mr Gove has been watching his weight lately, but he will have a hearty time of it soon, eating all these unkind words about Boris.

As for Boris, how far will he take his apparent desire for revenge? Perhaps Gove's humiliations are not yet complete. Perhaps, though, he might prefer to have Gove on side, rather than acting as some sort of guerrilla leader marauding across the Tory backbenches. He might tolerate his presence.

Besides, Boris might yet blow up, both over the next few weeks or, more likely, in trying to deliver an undeliverable Brexit. Prime Minister Johnson might be out by Christmas. In which case the search for a competent leader might start afresh by Christmas, and yet another chapter in the psychodrama will begin.

At any rate Gove’s memoirs will profit from his adventures. The Gove-Johnson rivalry ranks with other vintage feuds of allies turned enemies: Blair-Brown, Jenkins-Crosland, Butler-Macmillan, Bevin-Morrison…

To adapt an old story about Herbert Morrison and Ernest Bevin’s enmity, if anyone ever remarks of Boris that he is his own worst enemy, Gove can always immediately butt in to add: “Not while I'm alive, he ain't.”