The odds are stacked against him – but could Rishi Sunak possibly win?

The wind of change is blowing through Westminster. Newer, fresher, happier faces occupy the halls of power. They belong to Labour supporters, inevitably buoyed by poll leads and government missteps.

But before we think a Labour election victory is a foregone conclusion, take note of wise words of the great political strategist Lynton Crosby: “Polls are a snapshot in time, not a prediction”. Things can – and do – change.

The election isn’t in the bag for either of the major players yet, so those restless Johnson supporters may wish to reflect on this before their nervousness overpowers them to stage a coup against Rishi Sunak.

For Conservatives, there are reasons to be cheerful. Yes, the latest round of YouGov polling doesn’t show a significant shift in voting intention, but Sunak is closing the gap on who would make the better PM. And, if nothing else, we have returned to a much-needed period of dullness in British politics. Sunak is a stabilising force – though lacking in political razzmatazz, he may yet prove to be what the country needs in these baffling times.

With such a strong lead in the opinion polls, dullness could also be a sensible strategy for Keir Starmer, given the risk of any radical announcement upsetting his current coalition of supporters. Labour have promised to begin to provide more detail about their programme for government, but their leader’s recent outings are not inspiring.

Rather than a radical blueprint for reform, Starmer has announced more tinkering with devolution, a consultation on banning smoking (at some point in the future) and lots of criticism about the state of the NHS without much of an idea how Labour would square the circle of health unions’ demands for more money, the country’s current economic state and a lack of willingness by taxpayers to pour yet more money into a failing system.

The outside world is taking another look at the balance of power. The shadow chancellor is reprising the (old) New Labour “prawn cocktail offensive” by encouraging captains of industry to look at the opposition with fresh eyes, who under Corbyn were pariahs to enterprise. There’s cautious optimism that maybe Starmer is someone they can do business with. But even here there is little by way of a plan for growth. Starmer talked about skills and the green sector but given today’s challenges it seems small in relation to the task at hand.

Starmer, it seems, has abandoned the left-wing platform on which he won the leadership of the party – and has become a New Labour tribute act in the hope it will ease his path to victory. Meanwhile, Sunak’s embrace of technocratic solutions to the country’s multiple crises might be sensible and logical, but it won’t get the blood pumping among potential supporters of the current underdog and ensure a surprising fifth Conservative victory.

Perhaps the weakness of both leaders is that they underestimate the electorate’s need for a sense of national mission. Recent successful political campaigns have encapsulated a strong sense of objective. For example, the promise to “get Brexit done”, or, “stay home, protect the NHS, save lives”.

A three-word slogan is not going to change the outcome on its own, but a clearer direction and more confident outlook could help decide a contest that is far from determined.

Salma Shah is a partner and senior adviser at Portland, the communications and public affairs company. Previously, Salma was special adviser to the home secretary, Sajid Javid, from 2018-19