Theresa May’s time is up – but it’s still anyone’s guess as to how her departure will play out

Margaret Thatcher left in a blur of tears in the back of a limousine. John Major popped over to the Oval to watch the cricket. David Cameron announced he was off and walked back into Number 10 humming insouciantly, for all the world as if he’d been given the afternoon off school.

But how will Theresa May go? There is no set procedure for a failing prime minister to be prised out of 10 Downing Street, and the process of ending a premiership always involves confusion and uncertainty, rumours and denials.

That has certainly been the case this week. As she confidently unveiled her “new Brexit deal” before a backdrop optimistically reading “seeking common ground in parliament”, anyone in the room might have been forgiven for thinking the prime minister had some hope that her torturously crafted compromises might finally secure MPs’ approval.

No one outside had that impression. In the Palace of Westminster, smartphones lit up as MPs of all stripes shared their disdain in texts, Twitter posts and WhatsApp groups.

By the time May walked off stage, it was clear her deal was dead. And instantly the rumours started. Word went out that some ministers thought the PM had gone beyond what was agreed earlier at cabinet, making use of the convention that the weekly meeting ends not with a vote on a final text, but with the PM “summing up” what has been agreed in her own words.

First sign that something was afoot came on Wednesday, when cabinet Brexiteers – Leadsom, Fox, Grayling, Cox, Mordaunt, Gove – were absent from the front bench for prime minister’s questions. Some had good excuses, but others were busy plotting at the “pizza club” group of Leave-leaning ministers.

The extent to which May had lost her party became evident as backbenchers trooped out of the chamber before her Brexit statement, leaving the rows behind her half-empty as she fielded almost universally hostile questions.

That evening’s session of the 1922 Committee was dramatically halted so chief whip Julian Smith could be summoned to speak to officials. Then chair Sir Graham Brady’s meeting with the PM to discuss her departure was brought forward to Friday.

By then, rumours were swirling of ministers demanding to see the PM – mild-mannered Scotland secretary David Mundell, then Sajid Javid and Jeremy Hunt. Then further rumours that the PM was refusing to see them. Was this a coup? No, said insiders, just a matter of getting the right line on a second referendum.

Things got really serious with a tweet from Leadsom at 7.35pm announcing that “with a heavy heart” she was resigning. Front pages were hastily rewritten and the political world held its breath, waiting to see if other ministers would follow. So far, none have, but there is no doubt in Westminster that the endgame is here – just uncertainty about how it will play out.

Yours,

Andrew Woodcock

Political editor