What do elections look like in a country with no opposition?

With a parliamentary vote now just weeks away, Russia is officially in election season. But bar a few party posters scattered around town, you would struggle to guess.

The outcome of this election, after all, appears long decided. It would be a major upset if candidates from non-Kremlin parties were to secure just one of the 450 seats on offer.

Even before the political metamorphoses of Russia’s 2021, things were predictable enough. All things being equal, the system would have returned respectable numbers for Kremlin parties through fair means or foul.

Discounted macaroni and sausages would have delivered a good turnout among loyal voters. Ballot stuffers and corrupt returning officers would have secured the rest. But a year-long clampdown has made September’s ballot even less dramatic than it might have been.

Responding to the twin challenges of a Belarusian uprising, and Alexei Navalny’s bold return in January, the Kremlin has effectively outlawed the opposition.

Navalny is in jail. His top associates have fled to Europe. His grassroots political organisation – at one point a rival to the ruling party’s – has been dismantled and prohibited. Every single one of his candidates has been denied registration.

The clampdown didn’t stop at Navalny. Dmitry Gudkov, Russia’s next most well-known opposition politician, was also forced to flee the country. The Kremlin arrested other, far less engaging opposition politicians – those with zero chance of upending the political order – jailing a good number of them.

According to the election-monitoring NGO Golos, new laws have deliberately disenfranchised as many as 8 per cent of voters, even more than during Soviet times. And the parallels with Soviet elections don’t end there.

That’s not to say these elections are without consequence – or hope for Russia’s besieged opposition.

As Russia heads into a likely transition to a post-Putin order,  I for one will be watching to see if the opposition and their voters can consolidate in any way.

Russia’s electoral system is split 50-50 between proportional representation and first-past-the-post constituency voting. While unlikely, there is a chance that independent candidates could be elected via the latter – especially if voters choose the kind of tactical voting promoted by Navalny.

The Kremlin does not view this prospect with enthusiasm. It saw the dangers of an underestimated housewife, who squeezed herself on to the ballot next door in Belarus.

But a history of opposition rifts, splits, and continued cattiness around the character of Navalny suggest the authorities don’t have a great deal to worry about.

Yours,

Oliver Carroll

Moscow Correspondent