Journalism gets interesting when nothing is set in stone

There are no certainties anymore. Even when Theresa May faced absolute, nailed-on defeat in the vote on her withdrawal agreement last week there were still jitters in the newsroom and talk of preparing content for a shock result.

It was the same with the no-confidence vote the following day. We knew who would be voting and for whom. The key players on all sides had made it very clear. So why were we still haggling over plans to cover the entirely unexpected?

Blame Brexit. Blame Donald Trump.

Newsrooms are always preparing to deal with the unexpected, of course. We’re set up to react quickly to anything that might befall the planet. But we have also been used to making sensible calls on the likelihood of events, and have targeted resources accordingly.

The momentous results in the Brexit referendum and US presidential election of 2016 have made that process more interesting, and certainly more fraught. It’s probably a good thing. Polling is given a little less weight in our thinking; alternative scenarios (however unlikely) are given full consideration. If someone insists that “Trump couldn’t possibly do that”, there is a only weary recognition that he could. The president has stretched the borders of political plausibility to breaking point.

It has been the same in financial markets too. A 10-year bull market can breed complacency and journalists had to scramble to cover the volatility that suddenly spiked in 2018 when Trump’s trade-war rhetoric made investors reassess pretty much everything.

And the sense that absolutely nothing is fixed has even reached the world of sport. Following Manchester City’s 9-0 mauling of Burton Albion in the Carabao Cup semi-final first leg a couple of weeks ago, some were moved to hedge their bets. The BBC online news team declared that Pep Guardiola’s side were “almost certain” to reach the next round.

That may be taking it too far, but who knows? If there’s one thing we have learned it’s that we must be prepared for the most extraordinary cup upset of modern times on 23 January. Hold the front page! Get Lucas Akins (Burton striker and prospective 10-goal hero) lined up for that exclusive post-match interview!

Yours

Joel Dimmock

Voices deputy editor