Westminster has descended into a deceptive silence – the calm before another storm to come

Politics is in ferment. Big-hitters Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt are slugging it out for the premiership. The Brexit clock is ticking down. And there’s even another leadership contest going on in the Liberal Democrats.

So it must be a busy time at Westminster, then?

Well, actually, no.

After the frenzy around the two missed deadlines for Brexit in the spring, the three failed “meaningful votes”, the local and European elections, the ousting of Theresa May and the serial culling of her would-be successors by Tory MPs, Westminster is currently going through an unaccustomed period of calm. Like that moment when you pass into the eye of the hurricane and the storm briefly stills before resuming its ferocity, a moment’s rest appears to be taking place at the palace before it plunges once again into the chaos that passes for politics in our confused times.

Leadership contenders, both Tory and Lib Dem, are out touring the country, delivering stump speeches to gatherings of the party faithful, glad-handing activists and meeting constituency associations. They pop up every now and then with a policy announcement or a national media interview, but there is not the same intense atmosphere of intrigue and skulduggery that prevailed at Westminster during the fight for Tory MPs’ votes.

Soon even the hustings events and TV debates will lose much of their significance, as the bulk of activists will send off their postal ballots as soon as they receive them – earlier this week for Lib Dems and in the coming few days for Conservatives.

Meanwhile, the long wait for the announcement of a new Tory leader on 23 July, and his anointment as prime minister the following day, has left government effectively going through the motions.

Theresa May continues to make announcements of what she hopes will be projects to secure her legacy. Philip Hammond continues to warn both the current and future PMs not to burn their way through the cash “headroom” he has built up through years of austerity. But, as the longest parliamentary session in living memory drags into its third year, there is not much government business left to be completed (except delivering Brexit, and there’s no sign of MPs being able to do that).

Since the middle of April, MPs have only had to vote 12 times – and one of those was to approve their own summer holidays.

Of course, it won’t last. Once the new PM is installed in 10 Downing Street, business will resume at the fullest possible throttle, as a cabinet is appointed, a new government agenda set out and the incoming Tory leader launches himself into the Herculean task of devising, negotiating and ratifying a new Brexit deal by the end of October.

Anyone at Westminster hoping for a quiet summer is set to be disappointed.

Yours,

Andrew Woodcock

Political editor