Boris Johnson can’t magic away a no-deal Brexit simply by censoring the term

When is a no-deal Brexit not a no-deal Brexit? That’s the riddle that’s been puzzling Westminster since Boris Johnson declared on Monday that the choice was no longer between deal and no deal but between a “Canada-style” and “Australia-style” agreement.

Canada-style we all know about. It’s the hardest of hard Brexits – outside the single market, outside the customs union, with zero tariffs on many goods but nothing for the services sector which makes up most of the UK economy – and so beloved of Nigel Farage and Steve Baker.

But Australian-style? Sounds good, doesn’t it? Australia! Barbecues! Beaches! Sunshine! Maybe Kylie Minogue will be singing! Who doesn’t fancy a bit of Australian-style once in a while?

Except that Australia doesn’t actually have a free trade agreement with the EU – indeed, the country is currently engaged in intensive negotiations to try to get one. Apparently, Australia regards its current “Australian-style” arrangements as unsatisfactory for a country that is the EU’s 18th largest trade partner.

As EU trade commissioner Phil Hogan helpfully pointed out, an “Australian-style settlement” is another way of saying “no-deal Brexit”.

So at the next opportunity, Westminster’s press corps put this inconvenient truth to Johnson’s spokesperson.

But, no no no, he replied, Australian-style wasn’t no deal. Didn’t we know that Canberra has 28 bilateral agreements with the EU on things like wine exports? That doesn’t sound like no deal, does it?

So your correspondent from The Independent asked: if Johnson doesn’t manage to negotiate a comparable number of bilateral agreements (possibly not on wine, but maybe crumpets or pork pies or something), would that be a no-deal Brexit?

No no no, came the answer again. There can’t be no deal, because we got a deal in October. Hadn’t we noticed it had gone through the Commons last month and been celebrated by Farage in a bongless Parliament Square on a damp Friday evening last week?

But surely that was the divorce deal, we said. It dealt with things like citizens’ rights and the Irish border and settling Britain’s bills, but had nothing to do with tariffs and quotas and queues at the border and medicine shortages and all the things that people worry about when they talk about no-deal Brexit. Should all the businesses currently spending money preparing for no-deal Brexit just stop now?

There wasn’t really an answer to that one.

But it shone a light on one of the immortal truths of politics. If there’s something rotten coming down the tracks, it’s your fault and – worst of all – there’s no way to stop it, there’s still something you can do: change its name.

It didn’t work for Margaret Thatcher when she tried to rebrand the poll tax as the community charge. But Johnson clearly believes if he simply stops saying “no-deal Brexit”, it might just cease to exist.

Still – Australia eh? I wonder if there’ll be koalas. I like koalas, and I bet you do too.

Yours,

Andrew Woodcock

Political editor