I fear we political hacks may be writing about Brexit well beyond the MPs’ vote

After the vote that found the government in contempt of parliament earlier this week, an MP, carried away in the moment, shouted, “It’s the beginning of the end.”

His voice rang out from the hubbub of colleagues trying to understand what it meant that the government had been defeated in three consecutive votes in the Commons chamber.

The contempt motion, which two of the votes related to, ended up meaning very little, apart from the fact that the government had to publish the legal advice given to cabinet relating to the blasted “Irish backstop” – words that people in Westminster are sick to the back teeth of hearing.

But it turns out that attorney general Geoffrey Cox had actually revealed most of the legal advice’s worst parts in his theatrical Commons statement the day before. While Labour has been very effective at forcing the government to be transparent in this case, I suspect if the party ever gets into government again it will regret the precedent of having to publish legal documents.

The third lost vote could turn out to be hugely significant, but could also turn out to mean nothing. It’s one of those mind-numbingly frustrating legal points, for which you have no real idea how important it might be until it is tested.

The vote meant MPs won the chance to propose how the government should proceed if (when) May’s deal fails, but it won’t be legally binding. So we can only know how closely a future prime minister will obey the will of the Commons at that point.

For now we must sit for days as Theresa May walks slowly towards the political gallows that is Tuesday’s Commons vote on her Brexit deal, Tory rebels drumming a mournful beat as she goes.

All the while the armchair prime ministers of Westminster go into overdrive gaming out what must happen next – resignation, leadership challenge, Norway, referendum?

My guess; as long as the defeat is not so horrifically big, the zombie prime minister will lurch on, all the way to Brussels on Thursday, where she will try and gain some small concession, in the hope that it will turn a few more rebels in a second vote. But if the first defeat is too big to swallow, then we may be in for a very stormy 2019.

One lobby colleague half-joked, half-lamented this week that he and I may be writing about Brexit for the rest of our careers. Beginning of the end? Let that be our Christmas wish.

Yours,

Joe Watts

Political editor