Would Boris Johnson survive a Tory no-confidence vote?

The Queen’s jubilee offers a welcome break for Boris Johnson. In fact, the long weekend offers a welcome break for weary Conservative MPs, even the ones pushing for the prime minister’s removal over Partygate.

But Westminster remains in a state of feverish anticipation. Many are convinced we are tantalisingly close to a Tory leadership vote – and could even see a no-confidence vote announced when MPs return on Monday.

His Downing Street team and loyal ministers remain defiant, dismissing the rebels’ chances of triggering a vote anytime soon. Even if the contest does get triggered in the coming days, Johnson’s closest allies insist that he would win. Are they delusional? Let’s run through the numbers we know about:

A leadership vote is triggered if 54 letters – 15 per cent of sitting Tory MPs – write to 1922 Committee chair Sir Graham Brady. If that threshold is reached, we will see the vote take place within days. Johnson would then need to secure 50 per cent of the ensuing secret ballot to survive, equating to around 180 MPs, to survive as party leader and prime minister. The smart money is on Johnson retaining enough support and limping on.

Sensible types at Westminster like to point out that getting 180 MPs to stick the knife in remains a very high bar to reach because so many are on the government payroll. The current payroll vote stands between 160 and 170 MPs – with almost 100 in ministerial positions, a few dozen parliamentary private secretaries and around 20 trade envoys.

Yet it is striking how little affection and loyalty Johnson holds across the Conservative benches, despite his 2019 election triumph. Unlike Theresa May’s battles with her party during the Brexit wars, there are no big ideological fights which keep significant chunks of the party close to his bosom.

Some junior ministers may decide, in the secrecy of the ballot, that their fears about Johnson’s electability and the potential loss of their own seat trumps the bump in their salary. Some senior ministers may decide, in the secrecy of the ballot, that their own leadership ambitions should not be put off any longer. Indeed, one Tory MP keen to see Johnson deposed told me recently that the secrecy of the ballot could make it “weirdly easier” to get the 180 votes than 54 letters.

The logic is that the letter-writing process has been a strangely public affair, since it usually forces backbenchers to declare their opposition to the current regime in an effort build momentum. It does not appear, yet, that 180 hedge-betting Tories have made up their minds to get rid of him. But it is not impossible that momentum suddenly shifts against Johnson in the hours after a vote is announced. Let’s see. We may not have to wait much longer to find out.

Yours,

Adam Forrest

Political correspondent