The one battle President Zelensky looks set to win

Not so very long ago, Vladimir Putin, the would-be reincarnation of Joseph Stalin, had some cause for satisfaction. True, his ill-fated “special military operation” in Ukraine had spectacularly failed in its initial stated aim of subsuming the country into a Greater Russia, resistance supposedly crumbling in days, with Volodymyr Zelensky skulking off into exile.

However, the Kremlin’s “meat-grinder” strategy has succeeded in occupying roughly a third of what was left of Ukrainian territory after the 2014 invasion. Russian troops were advancing, albeit at a glacial pace and an obscene cost in human lives.

The attacks on civilians, homes and energy infrastructure were helping to demoralise and exhaust the Ukrainians, brave as they were. Some 40,000 fresh troops were promised by North Korea – Kim Jong Un’s elite squads, according to reports. Mr Kim and Russia’s other allies in the Middle East were assisting with the sanctions-busting; and the Iranians and Syrians (and, to a lesser degree, the Houthis, Hezbollah and Hamas) shared Russia’s agenda.

The proxy wars against Israel and America were not going well but at least the principal players in Damascus and Tehran were still on side. Above all, President Putin was looking forward to the return of his friend Donald Trump to the White House, and an advantageous deal concluded within 24 hours – possibly even before Mr Trump took the oath of office.

Now? Things don’t look so good for the Russian leader.

The Ukrainians are continuing their resistance and, for now, have been able to disrupt Russian bombing raids with longer-range Western missiles. They’ve also carried out the audacious assassination, close to the Kremlin, of the Russian general in charge of chemical weapons. Footage released by Kyiv purports to show bewildered North Korean soldiers cowering in surrender (and has not been challenged).

A couple of elderly Russian oil tankers have broken up in the Black Sea; and the fall of Bashar al-Assad has fractured Russian power in the Middle East, weakening Iran with it and jeopardising important military and naval bases in Syria. No longer can Iran freely traverse Syria to arm terrorists, and the ayatollahs look increasingly weak and isolated in the face of Israeli attacks and their own feeble attempts to penetrate Benjamin Netanyahu’s defensive Iron Dome. Russia is on the back foot.

Most concerning for President Putin, President-elect Trump sounds much more even-handed about a future peace deal, despite some careless remarks about military support for Ukraine. Despite recent ructions in Paris and Berlin, European backing for Ukraine remains strong, and yet more EU sanctions have been imposed.

The meetings of the Joint Expeditionary Force and the Nordic-Baltic Eight countries in Estonia are evidence of that continuing determination to fight; the UK, Iceland, Norway, Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Finland, Germany and Poland representing a formidable praetorian guard for Ukraine. They were addressed by Volodymyr Zelensky, more than a mere gesture of solidarity; Ukraine could become a member.

Despite the evasion of sanctions, the Russian economy is more and more feeling the strain of being placed on a war footing and starved of Western investment. Nor can President Putin necessarily look to Beijing for indefinite, unconditional support for his war. Like Mr Assad, President Putin has few friends, and not necessarily reliable ones.

None of that means that Ukraine will “win” this war in the sense of pushing the Russians back to the position of February 2022, when renewed hostilities broke out – still less, the recovery of the Crimea and eastern provinces lost to Russia a decade ago.

But Ukraine will not lose the war either and is in an unexpectedly stronger position than seemed likely in the summer. In his remarks to the Estonia summit, President Zelensky was realistic about what 2025 will bring: “We all understand that next year could be the year this war ends. We must make it happen … We need to establish peace in a way that Putin can no longer break, a peace that’s not just a pause, but a real, lasting peace.”

He is right about that. Even if Ukraine is not immediately able to regain all its lost sovereign territory, it can look forward to a more secure medium- to long-term future – and it will, of necessity, have to be sheltered by some form of Western military guarantees.

A challenge for European solidarity, then – and with putative schemes for a European defence and security pact, the signs are that this is one diplomatic battle President Zelensky may win.