After six months of war, Ukraine is still free – the West must hold its nerve

Six months on from Vladimir Putin’s invasion and Ukraine remains free, independent and defiant – if not yet reunited and free of its unwelcome guests.

Had things gone to the Kremlin’s plan, Ukraine would by now be occupied, pacified and going through a process of Russification and Russianisation, erasing all trace of Ukraine’s distinctive culture and identity. Parts of the country would be ceded to Russia and the rest placed under the care of a compliant regime, similar to Alexander Lukashenko’s in Belarus, steadily steering Ukraine’s economy and foreign policy in the interests of Russia.

President Zelensky was supposed to have fled to the West, and his army to have deserted in the face of overwhelming Russian force. President Putin would, so he dreamed, be welcomed as a liberator by teeming crowds of joyful Ukrainians in Maidan Square.

Even those sympathetic to Ukraine and impressed by its national resolve expected that the sheer heft of constant bombardment would eventually secure victory for Moscow.

It has not turned out quite like that. After a hesitant start, the West has followed the British lead (for which due credit should be granted to Ben Wallace and Boris Johnson) and rallied around Ukraine, supplying steadily more useful and advanced equipment, letting the Ukrainians have the tools to do the job of fighting a war, if not yet winning it.

The Kremlin, used to a complacent response from the West to aggression in Georgia, Syria and the 2014 invasion of Ukraine, was also taken by surprise by the strength of the economic sanctions clamped on the Russian economy. Most disquieting of all for Moscow, the new social-democrat-led government of Olaf Scholz decided to steadily reduce Germany’s dependence on Russian oil and gas imports and abandon its long-standing pacifism towards Russia.

This Zeitenwende (historical turning point) in policy in Europe’s largest economy includes a commitment to rearmament unthinkable to a previous generation of Germans. A stronger, more hostile Germany isn’t the outcome the Kremlin wanted from its “special military operation”.

With the war in Ukraine, the EU has also found a new sense of purpose, again contrary to all past experience and predictions, and Nato has been revived and immeasurably strengthened by the accession of previously neutral Finland and Sweden.

If President Putin wanted “less Nato”, “less EU” and less Western firepower on its doorstep, he has sorely misjudged the consequences of his actions. His early tank-based attack on Kyiv has been long since abandoned, and the Ukrainians are now pushing the Russians back in parts of the south and east, especially around Kherson, and with direct assaults on Russian bases in occupied Crimea, previously judged safe enough for Russians to go on vacation there.

All that said, Russia has not yet been defeated, and the best guess about the future seems to be that the war will become more one of attrition rather than the kind of rapid advances that have sometimes characterised conflict on the Steppes. Putin can still count on China, India, Iran and Turkey to appease him, and Russia has begun to consolidate its grip on much of the Donbas and the east of Ukraine. Odesa and the Black Sea coast remain vulnerable, not least to Russian blockades of trade, grain and vital cooking oil exports.

Putin is not on the run, even if he is finding it difficult to prevail. He cannot escalate the war to a nuclear level, his army is running out of spare parts, and he is obviously reluctant to resort to drafting young Russians into the service of a war of aggression. He controls television and the media, and has mostly enjoyed success within Russia with his propaganda about Ukrainian Nazis, but the constant flow of body bags and word-of-mouth evidence of Russian military failure also mean he cannot push his luck – hence the stalemate.

Ukrainian bravery and Russian incompetence remain the given factors in this conflict. Where the war will be won or lost is in the cabinet rooms and conference chambers of the West. For how much longer will Western democracies be able to sustain such a war when the consequences for food and energy prices are becoming so painful to bear for their populations?

The people of Ukraine are suffering privations and the loss of loved ones far in excess of any hardships felt in, say, Poland, Britain or France – but Western leaders have to answer to their own voters. As “General Winter” approaches, the weather may once again work to Russia’s advantage. There is the very real risk of power cuts and gas rationing in Europe, despite attempts to find alternative sources of supply and build up reserves, notably in Germany. 

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More than any other single factor, Putin’s war has been responsible for driving inflation to multi-decade highs, and with it the probability of recession throughout the industrialised world. In developing nations and emerging economies in Africa and Asia, there remains the very real danger of famine as food exports from Ukraine and Russia continue to be disrupted. Sacrifices are being asked of Western populations on a scale not seen for many years. For many, it will be a miserable Christmas.

How long, in other words, will Western nerves hold? Unlike his counterparts in the free world, President Putin doesn’t need to pay much attention to public opinion, and in any case, he has not yet completely run out of support or manpower, and his economy is still functioning in its usual ramshackle fashion. Western governments, by contrast, are faced with unfamiliar challenges. These weary, frightened electorates will soon be, as things stand, unable to cope with trebling fuel bills and unable to feed their families properly.

Leaders will need to work far harder to carry their populations with them through these hardships, coming as they do after the agonies of Covid. Western governments had better pray for a mild winter. Caving in to Putin still doesn’t bear thinking about.