The Ukrainians must win this war of survival – we have to make sure they do

Vladimir Putin’s attempt to seize control of Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, has been repulsed. His attempt to take Mariupol has not yet succeeded, and Russian forces have been defeated in their attempt to advance on Odesa, Ukraine’s remaining Black Sea port.

President Putin’s war aims appear to have been reduced to an attempt to gain more territory in the eastern provinces of Ukraine, so that he can proclaim a limited victory on behalf of the Potemkin republics of Donetsk and Luhansk.

Even this may be beyond him, and some observers are speculating that the Russian military is now so short of resources and personnel that it cannot sustain offensive operations for many more weeks. Meanwhile, the evidence is mounting that Mr Putin is having trouble controlling what the Russian people know about the war.

Two months after the invasion began, it is becoming clearer what is at stake. As Kim Sengupta, our defence and security editor, and Bel Trew, our international correspondent, write in their coverage on the progress of the war, this is the end of the beginning of a conflict that will shape the history of this century.

That Putin has failed in his most expansive aim, which seems to have been to subjugate the entire Ukrainian nation, is the most significant fact of the war so far. But it leaves Ukraine and its allies in a dilemma about how to bring the fighting to an end. No one knows how the battle for the eastern provinces is going to work out. It has been reported that UK intelligence officials think that an inconclusive war could continue until the end of next year, and that Russian forces could regroup and even eventually prevail.

The prime minister did not dissent from this doom-laden possibility when he spoke at his news conference in Delhi on Friday, but he drew what we believe to be the right conclusion, which is that Ukraine’s allies must increase their support for a people fighting for their survival as an independent nation.

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Boris Johnson announced a plan to supply Poland with tanks, so that Poland can in turn supply Ukraine with its Soviet-era tanks, with which Ukrainian soldiers are familiar. This “backfill” arrangement is similar to the plan rejected by President Joe Biden, for the US to supply jet fighters to Poland, to allow Poland to send its Soviet-era jets to Ukraine. Mr Biden was concerned to minimise the risk of Mr Putin escalating the conflict, but it would be worse if Ukraine started to lose the war, which is why the supply of heavy weapons is now essential.

As our special reports make clear, Mr Putin has already lost the war at a deeper level. Ukrainians who told our reporters that they would never take up arms against their Russian cousins are now fighting with their comrades against the invader. The Ukrainian national identity that Mr Putin denies has been immeasurably strengthened by his aggression. Any victory for him on the battlefield would be a hollow one.

Yet it could still take a long time for Mr Putin and the Russian state to come to terms with its defeat, and there will be a great deal of suffering and pain before there can be any resolution. Whatever happens, the outcome is likely to be better if the Ukrainians can prevent further Russian advances, and if they can reclaim as much Ukrainian territory as possible. Ukraine’s allies, including the UK, must increase their efforts to make sure that happens.