Ukraine and its people need us – Western support for Kyiv has to stay strong in 2024

As we approach the second anniversary of the launch of Vladimir Putin’s invasion in February, Western commentary on the war in Ukraine has become increasingly gloomy.

After the failure of the initial invasion, the friends of the Ukrainian people and the supporters of their right to defend themselves against Mr Putin’s aggression assumed that it would be possible for the Ukrainians to recover their stolen territory reasonably quickly and declare the war over. Ukrainian morale was so high and the condition of the Russian military so poor that such optimism seemed justified.

All through 2023, hopes were invested in the Ukrainian counteroffensive, but they have not been realised. The war has settled into a defensive battle over entrenched front lines that can be moved, slowly, only at great cost in lives and materiel.

The assumption has taken hold that this state of deadlock favours Mr Putin, in that possession is nine-tenths of the law and he still holds Crimea and a large part of eastern Ukraine, while he waits for the election of Donald Trump in the United States and the continuing weakening of resolve on the part of Ukraine’s allies. What is more, it is assumed that Russia can make up for the poor quality of its military machine by sheer quantity of conscripts and resources, especially when Mr Putin seems to regard human life as so cheap.

Recent developments seem to support the idea that the longer the war goes on, the more likely it is that Russia’s territorial gains in Ukraine will be made permanent. It has been assumed that, because the world’s democracies have been distracted by the conflict between Hamas and Israel, they lack the will to continue paying for the war in Ukraine.

US funding for Ukraine is entangled in partisan conflict in Congress that is almost as deadlocked as the actual fighting in Ukraine. The Republican Party is trying to use the funding as leverage in its domestic policy battles.

This is irresponsible and wrong. The principles of self-determination and resisting aggression ought to be above party, not just in the US but in democratic Europe, where Viktor Orban, the Hungarian leader, is playing similar games with the European Union’s support for Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Mr Putin has stepped up his drone and missile attacks on Ukraine, presumably feeling under pressure to be able to show some progress on the battlefield by the time of his re-election as president in March. The election will of course be rigged, and the Russian regime’s propaganda about the state of the conflict in Ukraine never bears much relation to reality, but Mr Putin would still rather be enjoying real military advances than imaginary ones.

However, supporters of the Ukrainian people sometimes overdo the pessimism. Mr Putin cannot sustain the current level of casualties for long. The latest UK defence intelligence update estimates that by the end of the coming year, Russia will have suffered half a million killed or injured in three years of war. That compares with 70,000 suffered by the Soviet Union in the nine years of war in Afghanistan in the 1980s.

And Ukraine continues to score successes in battle, such as the recent strike on the landing ship in occupied Crimea.

The politicking about funding in the US and the EU will be resolved. As Sir Lawrence Freedman, emeritus professor of war studies at King’s College London, comments, Hungary’s veto “will soon be overcome or, even if not, there are workarounds that will get eventually to the desired result”. And he adds that, for Mr Putin, “having to rely on Donald Trump both winning the November US election and then doing what he wants is not wholly comfortable”.

One other thing that 2023 proved was that Ukraine, too, can sustain a long war. We had hoped for a quicker victory, but if it has to take time, very well then – Ukraine’s allies must affirm their willingness to see it through. The cause of the Ukrainian people is just. Mr Putin cannot be allowed to win. Let us resolve to ensure in 2024 that he will not.