Germany must face up to the threat from the East

It is a cliche, but an unavoidable one when faced with the tragedy of Ukraine: the West is about to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

By failing to supply all of the military equipment Volodymyr Zelensky has begged his Nato friends for, it makes it all the more possible – if not likely – that the war in Ukraine which has cost so much in lives and human suffering, will, in the end, be lost. With the fall of Ukraine, the security of Europe and the world will also be ceded.

It is unthinkable that Vladimir Putin should succeed. The danger is clear, and further highlighted by the recent minor successes of Russian and Wagner Group mercenary forces: backed as it is by 150,000 troops, the Russian offensive is capable of making significant progress. A renewed assault on Kyiv – better prepared than the one last February and, as weather allows, supplemented by a drive from Belarus – might be more successful than the first, futile attack. So far, the Russians have mostly embarrassed themselves in combat, and the military leadership seems chaotic and unstable. But that state of affairs may not last indefinitely.

Without the right quantity and quality of equipment – especially the main battle tanks essential to restoring Ukrainian territorial integrity – the sheer weight of Russian numbers, poorly equipped and trained as they are, could eventually overwhelm Ukraine and its battered economy.

By contrast, if the Ukrainians were soon able to rely on a large force of battle tanks, supported by artillery, air defence and other armoured vehicles, a determined and effective pre-emptive attack by Kyiv would push the Russians further back towards the border in the east. This could also possibly then liberate Crimea, and restore traffic and trade in the Black Sea (including vital exports of grain, fertiliser and cooking oil).

It would take time, and the effort might well take another year, but the sooner it begins, the more chance of success there is. With every day that passes without renewed Ukrainian action, the Russians are able to regroup and rebuild their strength, with the hope that milder weather will eventually work in their favour when they come to launch their next offensives. For the Ukrainians, and the wider interest of the West and the defence of democracy, time is of the essence. That was President Zelensky’s message to Nato and other allies, and he is right.

That is why the meeting at the Ramstein airbase in Germany ended with such a depressing outcome. The assembled chiefs of defence and defence ministers all offered assistance, including the US and Germany. Armoured vehicles, artillery, and more air defence systems will all be deployed as soon as possible. The American Bradley armoured vehicle and the British Challenger tanks are the closest to what President Zelensky really wants, and they fall short of his demands. He is starting to resent it: “Hundreds of thank yous are not hundreds of tanks.”

The one weapon of war that Mr Zelensky and his generals believe would bring a relatively swift victory – and avoid a rout on the battlefield when the Russians attack – is the German Leopard 2 battle tank. Hundreds of them are sitting in Germany, Poland, the Czech Republic and in other territories, ready to make the journey to Ukraine.

Transportation, sorting out logistics and training Ukrainian units would take time, which is all the more reason to start that work now. Yet the German government seems too weak to act immediately, and has once again delayed its decision. As things stand, Germany will not supply any of its own stock of Leopard tanks, and has not yet decided to allow its allies to send any of their Leopards to Ukraine either. Like justice, tanks delayed are tanks denied, if by the time they can be deployed the war is going Russia’s way.

Germany has made many painful sacrifices in order to help defend Ukraine and, thus, Europe and democracy. This is why it needs to take this decisive step with the tanks, to ensure that the effort to protect its allies does not end up wasted.

In such a world Germany would remain cut off from supplies of energy from the East, and would also have to ramp up its defence spending to secure Poland and its eastern frontier – a Nato commitment and a national imperative. It would make rather more sense to stop the Russians and push them back now, rather than wait until they control Ukraine as a puppet state and are within striking distance of Warsaw and Berlin.

Chancellor Scholz and his coalition partners are no doubt in a difficult position politically. Within a year he has had to reorder the German economy, as it has lost a major source of energy. Sanctions have cost the economy yet more. Almost six decades of German foreign policy aimed at normalising relations with Russia has had to be thrown brutally into reverse. An aversion to physical force, born of painful historical experience, has had to be overcome.

The German government may not have even persuaded itself of the gravity and urgency of the situation, let alone properly prepared public opinion for sending tanks towards Russia. The German government has said it will send the tanks if allies do, but doesn’t seem to recognise that the British are already doing so, the French are actively considering sending them, and others such as the Poles cannot do so without German permission.

Germany said that it will supply the Leopards only if the US sends Abrams battle tanks – yet they are far away and their deployment too complicated for the Ukrainians to be of use rapidly and reliably. Still, the Americans should send some, in case Germany can be shoved into doing the right thing, and to help the Ukrainians as it may be all they have to rely on. The timing is a gamble though, and the Americans are hanging back.

The time has come for Germany – the leading economic power in Europe – to face up to and rise to the military challenge from the East. The second Russian invasion of Ukraine in a decade – long dismissed, then feared, but now a bloody reality – has triggered a revolution in German attitudes and thinking.

However, this revolution has not quite yet been reflected in Germany policy and the hulking presence of Leopard tanks appearing where they are most needed. Just as America was, 80 years ago, obliged to become the arsenal of democracy in Europe’s liberation, so now is Germany obliged to give the Ukrainians the tools to finish the job.

Action this day, chancellor.