It’s no longer safe to leave Trump alone in the negotiating room with Putin, but there’s little we can do to stop it

“That’s going to be special!” remarked the US Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats when he was told, to his surprise, about the invitation from President Trump to President Putin to visit Washington later in the year. “Special” is certainly right.

In normal times, and in diplomatic terms, a return invitation to a foreign leader after hosting a meeting with the American president would be regarded as a formality, and a welcome one. Meeting jaw to jaw is better than war, as Churchill said.

We do not, as we realise all too well, live in normal times in the company of a normal American president. Donald Trump’s mini-summit with Vladimir Putin in Helsinki was widely regarded as a chaotic disaster. It was an occasion, lest we forget, during which the president of the United States humiliated and embarrassed his own intelligence agencies (and himself) by claiming that Russia had nothing to do with interfering in the 2016 presidential election, the winner of which is well known. He plainly said there was nothing in what the FBI had to say about the election, and that the whole thing was politically driven at the behest of supporters of Hillary Clinton. And all in front of the man behind the exercise, the ex-KGB president of Russia. To his credit, Putin resisted the temptation to smirk.

So woeful and wild was the Trump performance that even he had to backpedal on his remarks, unconvincing as the subsequent denials and reinterpretations have been.

The question now is whether a visit by Putin to the United Sates – his first since 2007 – would serve America’s interests and make the world a safer place. The omens are not good.

In the latest Trump tweets that nowadays pass for US foreign policy, the president states his agenda: “Including stopping terrorism, security for Israel, nuclear proliferation, cyberattacks, trade, Ukraine, Middle East peace, North Korea and more.”

Decoded, the fear must be that, in the privacy of their one-to-one meeting, the self-described “great dealmaker”, Trump, is looking for Russian support in a number of endeavours. At the top of the agenda, restraining Iranian nuclear proliferation and potential occupation of Syrian territory close to Israel, in return for some relaxation in the American stance on Ukraine and economic sanctions on Russia. Moscow might also be expected to throw in what modest influence they have on Pyongyang too. The US would tacitly and quietly downgrade its Nato commitments. Done deal.

The dangers in such an evolving grand bargain are obvious. Trump would herald it as a historic settlement of the various issues which divide the two nuclear superpowers, a product of his personal relationship with the “strong” Russian leader who shares his own nationalistic, authoritarian instincts. He would garnish the achievement by inviting Russia to rejoin the G8, for example, and, possibly, take up Putin’s offer to regulate global energy markets. So far from being punished for his aggression, Putin would find himself forgiven – and thus incentivised. It is a modern form of appeasement.

Such are perils of Trumpian personal diplomacy, unmediated by worrisome diplomats and experts. Dazzlingly erratic as the Helsinki show was, things could go further awry as the president pushes the boundaries of what he is able to achieve in foreign affairs without congressional support, and traditionally the president has enjoyed significant latitude to point the way and make policy. By the end of the year, then, the United States may have forged a closer relationship with Russia and North Korea than it enjoys with Germany or Britain, for example. No one can argue that the Trump administration isn’t full of surprises.

Yet the damage to the US would remain severe. A too-hasty nuclear disarmament by the US risks leaving Europe exposed to Russia’s superior nuclear and conventional armaments. As Trump erodes international confidence in the value of the US’s pledges under the Nato constitution, with some bizarre remarks about the strength of the Montenegrin people, Russia will see the tangible evidence of evaporating American strength in Europe with the withdrawal of some of the 52,000 US troops that stand between Poland and Estonia and further Russian influence. It is disappointing that Trump should also have made so little effort to condemn the murder and attempted murder of people in Salisbury, beyond the immediate withdrawal of 60 US diplomats from Russia some time ago. Trump simply does not believe that defending Europe is in America’s interests – the first president to believe this since 1941. He is wrong.

Trump, absurdly, may view himself as a “stable genius”, but in the presence of Putin he has met the real thing. Smart, self-effacing, unprepossessing, the Russian leader has shown himself able to manipulate Trump in an alarming fashion. The fact is that it is not safe to allow Trump into the negotiating room alone, save for translators, with this Russian bear. At their next meeting Trump will, once again, emerge mauled, along with America’s vital national interests. And, once again, there will be very little anyone will be able to do to stop it or reverse it.