After the latest round of gambling allegations, a Tory wipeout is a racing cert

To an experienced punter, the Tory betting scandal would make an interesting spread bet – say a fiver for every Conservative official, or person within the prime minister’s general ambit, that comes in for scrutiny and eventual action by the Gambling Commission or some other appropriate authority.

Thus far the number seems to be four people who’ve become tangled up in it in one way or another, some denying wrongdoing, though the facts are sometimes unclear and the outcomes as yet unknown. There is no necessary reason to suppose that more names won’t emerge.

Obviously, it cannot be good news for any party in the latter stages of a general election campaign to have two parliamentary candidates, the director of campaigns (married to one of those prospective MPs), the chief data officer and a member of Rishi Sunak’s police protection team out of action and subject of such unhelpful publicity.

If a party cannot run its own affairs with what Mr Sunak once called “integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level”, then it doesn’t augur well for the country. The voters will draw their own conclusions about this affair long before the Gambling Commission does.

When asked about it on breakfast television, James Cleverly, Tory punching bag for the day’s media round, soaked up the punishment and could only declare, rather meekly, that he had been told not to comment by the watchdog. Perhaps this is wise because, as home secretary, Mr Cleverly is ultimately responsible for this independent body, and appoints its governing body.

Still, those considerations didn’t stop the prime minister from declaring that he was “incredibly angry” about the revelations. Perhaps Mr Cleverly, who seems a more worldly operator than his boss, is simply less surprised to learn about his colleagues’ reported behaviour. He did seem more disappointed than driven to fury, as if he had had a small premonition of what he will have to deal with if he becomes the leader of what remains of his party after the election. Leading the smallest opposition group in the Commons since 1935 isn’t an enchanting prospect.

For now, the immediate impact is to grind the morale of Conservative Party workers and candidates further into the dust. As has been noted, the national mood seems to be overwhelmingly negative towards the party, if not downright vindictive.

Pleas from the Conservatives, tacitly admitting impending defeat, to have enough MPs to mount an effective opposition to the Starmer administration have not been answered. Even if they accepted the broad proposition, it is anyway impossible for any individual voter to try and calibrate the size of the Labour majority. So they will need a stronger argument than that to bolster their support.

Aside from the outbreak of possible criminality in recent days, there have been two main problems with the Conservative campaign. The first is that all the arguments they throw at the Labour Party about their sums not adding up apply equally to themselves – because Labour has broadly adopted the same fiscal rules, spending plans and major tax rates as the government has.

The Tories say that Labour is unlikely to turn the UK into the consistently fastest-growing economy in the G7, which is a legitimate charge; but, despite the incessant claims, Jeremy Hunt and Mr Sunak don’t have much of a “plan” for growing the economy either.

They would love it if they could rerun the 2019 general election, but unfortunately for them Jeremy Corbyn has been expelled from the Labour Party, and Brexit, disappointing as it is, got done and will not be undone by Labour.

The last few years have in any case shredded the Conservatives’ reputation for economic competence. The “iron-clad” Rachel Reeves scares her own party much more than she does the voters.

As a matter of interest, the bookies’ central prediction seems to be the Conservatives winning about 100 seats on 4 July, with Labour on around 430. That will indeed make for a highly unbalanced Commons, but not an unprecedented one.

The Tories, and the other opposition members, possibly featuring the rebarbative personalities of Corbyn, George Galloway and Nigel Farage, as well as the always factional Labour left, will be able to keep ministers on their toes as they implement their modest reforms.

The Conservatives’ traditional allies in the press, after all, will be all too eager to help out. However, the voters are in no mood to make political life any easier for the Conservatives, and for that Mr Sunak and his party have only themselves to blame. A punishment beating in about 10 days is a racing cert.