Theresa May’s timetable for Article 50 won’t allay Brexit concerns

The Prime Minister hopes the Conservative Party annual conference will not be utterly dominated by the great Brexit debate. Fat chance. Labour managed to avoid wrangling over that particular topic largely by virtue of having other, bigger arguments to deal with. For the Tories, the question of how the UK withdraws from the European Union is the pinnacle of an internal quarrel that has beset the party on and off for at least 30 years. Theresa May effectively owes her occupancy of No10 to the outcome of June’s referendum. Her chances of remaining resident in Downing Street for the longer term will largely be decided by how she handles Britain’s EU departure.

In advance of the Tory faithful’s gathering in Birmingham, Ms May has done what she thinks she can to head off claims that she has done too little to set a timetable for Brexit. First came the announcement that the Government will bring forward a “Great Repeal Bill”, by which the 1972 European Communities Act will be removed from the statute book. The Bill will also enshrine existing EU law into British law, at least for the time being. The delay to determining which elements of European legislation will ultimately be retained is sensible, though there will be some who would like the debate to begin sooner – the meanderings of this the Bill will thus be worth watching. Indeed, it remains to be seen whether staunch Remainers will consider an attempt to block its passage.

Ms May also confirmed that she will seek to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, thus starting the formal withdrawal process, by the end of March next year. If all goes to plan, therefore, Britain’s membership of the EU will be brought to an end by summer 2019. With a general election due the year after, the Prime Minister will give herself around 12 months to convince the electorate that whatever deal she ultimately gets from the EU’s remaining member states is proof of a job well done.

Despite Ms May’s best efforts, however, there remains little detail as to the nature of the deal she and her Government are seeking. Some, even within her party, have implied that by giving notice of her intention to trigger Article 50 by March the Prime Minister has given an indication that she may be preparing for a hard Brexit, in which Britain turns its back on the single market and closes its borders to EU citizens. Sure enough, to determine now that the withdrawal process will be started before national elections in France and Germany appears to be a victory for the Cabinet’s Brexiteers over pragmatists who would prefer to see how the land lies before the Government fires the starting gun.

If that is so, jitters will run through the Europhile wing of the Conservative Party quicker than you can say Liam Fox. It is undoubtedly the biggest concern among many Tory MPs that Theresa May is either too willing to let key Eurosceptics – especially Fox and David Davis – take the lead or, even worse, hasn’t worked out a strategy that can contain their vision for Britain outside the EU. That is why talk of a timetable for withdrawal is unlikely to end inter-party spats: what everyone (Tory or otherwise) really wants to know is what kind of Brexit the Prime Minister herself envisages. And while it is entirely reasonable for her to say that she cannot give a running commentary on pre-Article 50 negotiations, nevertheless the electorate are likely to be no less patient than Ms May’s party in their desire for clarity.

The fact is, more than three months have passed since the EU referendum. Its outcome was decisive only in relation to the question on the ballot paper – and even then the result was close. It is incumbent on the Prime Minister therefore to provide a clearer sense of what Brexit will look like, not only when it might happen. Only then can the British people work out whether the Government is exceeding the mandate it was given. In the meantime, Ms May will be doing all she can to keep both wings of her party happy. For all the talk of Labour disunity in recent months, it wouldn’t take much for Tory infighting to take hold. On that front, the Prime Minister has a bigger challenge on her hands than she may have bargained for.