Theresa May's proposals for the future of EU citizens in Britain are too little, too late

We are a year on from the EU referendum and finally negotiations are under way. The early signs are hardly positive.

After misjudging the electorate at home, the Prime Minister’s opening gambit in Brussels appears to have misjudged the mood there too. On Thursday evening, she announced to great fanfare a proposal which would allow EU citizens living in the UK to remain here. It came with two caveats though: first, only those who have been resident in the UK for five years will qualify; second, the EU must reciprocate in relation to British citizens living in Europe.

The reaction among European politicians has been, at best, mixed. Donald Tusk, EU Council President, described the offer as “below our expectations”. Jean-Claude Junker, President of the European Commission, said it was “not sufficient”. What is clear beyond doubt is that the Europeans, who already held the whip hand, have been emboldened by Theresa May’s recent disaster at the polls.

In truth, this is an issue which should have been resolved months ago, prior to the full negotiations even beginning. The former Chancellor George Osborne has revealed that it would have been too, had David Cameron got his way in the immediate aftermath of the referendum. Instead, it is claimed, Ms May blocked the initiative in her then role as Home Secretary. Ms May says that is not her recollection of events (and one wonders how a Home Secretary overrules a Prime Minister) – but it is, nonetheless, yet another damaging charge.

Having finally got around to setting out proposals, Ms May could have undone some of the damage caused by her delay, if she had been generous with her terms. Instead, she has put forward a plan that is not only vague but looks grudging, with its heavy-handed demands for reciprocity (something which would surely never have been refused in any case) and its not insignificant qualification period. Britain’s full position paper will, we presume, set out more detail on Monday – let’s hope some gaps are filled in between now and then. A few kind words wouldn’t go amiss either.

Brexit evangelists, who make less noise now than they did six months ago, maintain that it is necessary for the Prime Minister to adopt a tough stance in order to ensure that the remaining members of the EU don’t simply ride roughshod over Britain’s future wellbeing. But that is nonsense. Nobody who has an interest the long-term security of Europe’s economy wishes to run the UK into the ground, least of all other European leaders.

True, they will be keen to ensure that Brexit is not entirely painless – Britain, after all, is the one who decided to leave the club and can hardly be expected to keep all the benefits. Similarly, the EU’s top brass remains mindful of the possibility of contagion if EU withdrawal looks too easy.

That having been said, with anti-EU movements fading across the continent, the chances of other member states following in Britain’s ever-muddier footsteps seem very much less likely than they did last autumn.

The most obvious problem with taking a harsh approach when it comes to negotiating the rights of EU citizens is that the Prime Minister is dealing in people, not numbers. On the other issue which must be dealt with at an early stage – the Brexit “divorce bill” – a tough stance makes more intrinsic sense, even putting to one side the Government’s present fragility. When it comes to money, haggling is a legitimate exercise. Ms May, her ministers and her advisers need to recognise that different elements of the negotiation require different tactics.

Yet as has become painfully evident in recent months, the Prime Minister is not a flexible politician. She favours mantra and declaration over debate and subtle persuasion; her rigidity on the election campaign trail became almost laughable. Before too long, we will see if her approach is as damaging to the Brexit talks as it has already been to her Government’s strength and stability.