Stay wary of the most dangerous place on earth

Tuesday 13 June 2000 19:00 EDT
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Just possibly, one of the last curtains of the Cold War will soon be brought down. In recent months, driven by famine and economic decay, North Korea has quietly rejoined the world community by opening diplomatic links with Italy and Australia and sending its Foreign Minister to Hanoi, Moscow and Berlin.

Just possibly, one of the last curtains of the Cold War will soon be brought down. In recent months, driven by famine and economic decay, North Korea has quietly rejoined the world community by opening diplomatic links with Italy and Australia and sending its Foreign Minister to Hanoi, Moscow and Berlin.

All that, however, pales beside the three-day summit of the two Koreas that has just begun in Pyongyang. The word "historic" has been long devalued by overuse, but this occasion truly measures up. It is the first meeting between the leaders of two countries that are technically still at war and divided by competing ideologies and the most heavily armed frontier on earth.

Despite its poverty and backwardness, North Korea is the "rogue state" that most exercises Pentagon planners. It spends a sixth of its (not very large) GNP on defence and, last year, it successfully tested a medium-range ballistic missile. Reinforcing South Korea's border is a "trip-wire" of 37,000 American troops, almost certainly equipped with nuclear weapons. If Armageddon is to begin anywhere, the Korean peninsula has been high on the list of candidates for 50 years.

Hence the hopes raised by the talks between the South's Kim Dae Jung and the North's "Dear Leader" Kim Jong Il. The encounter, moreover, has had a most promising start, with effusive welcoming ceremonies and warm words.

Kim Dae Jung has appealed for steps to reunite the 1.8 million Koreans from families separated by the 1950 war, and for air, sea and land links between the two states - and the North has not said "no". At the end of the rainbow lies the stated goal of both sides: a reunited, independent Korea.

Most important now is that such meetings become regular and contribute to a lasting reduction in tension. The tensions in the region are, above all, the fault of the over-armed, intensely secretive and un-relentingly totalitarian North. His face may have seemed kinder of late to the outside world, but Kim Jong Il retains an iron grip.

North Korea wants new friends to help its primitive industry and salvage its disastrous agriculture. But economic reform will not necessarily produce political reform and a normalisation of relations with the US and other traditional foes.

Past practice, alas, suggests that the North is just as likely to funnel economic gains into building up its military, leaving the West with a stronger opponent in what President Bill Clinton has called "the most dangerous place on the planet".

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