Sajid Javid wants the pandemic to end on 19 July, but it should be data – not dates – that drives policy

Rather like waving a tray of turkey dinosaurs at a bunch of ravenous children, Sajid Javid’s approach to the Covid crisis is to wave the end of lockdown at his own ravenous backbenchers, in the sadly all-too-realistic hope – indeed knowledge – that all that matters to them is instant gratification. They pay rather less attention to the ingredients of the policy, which may well be as deeply unhealthy as those of the aforementioned teatime delicacy.

Even as indulgent a figure as the new health and social care secretary, however, cannot offer them an instant end to “lockdown” (as the remaining Covid restrictions are misleadingly known). He is, though, determinedly bullish about the prospects of ending the emergency measures on 19 July, leaving behind only a residue of entirely voluntary injunctions: to follow hand hygiene, wear masks in crowded places, ventilate rooms – and, of course, get a jab. If anything, he is even more “boosterish” than the prime minister.

Mr Javid wants the pandemic to end on 19 July – which may just be him misspeaking – but he also states that the process of unlock is “irreversible”, while even Boris Johnson has admitted that there may be delays and diversions along the way, as indeed there have already been.

According to the new health secretary, there is “no going back”; but even Mr Johnson has dropped some heavy hints about a difficult winter on the way. No doubt Mr Johnson is pleased that his resurrected colleague shares his optimistic outlook, and that he seems inclined both to be less timid than Matt Hancock and to afford the economy more weight in the balance of decisions.

He has virtually ruled out pushing the new deadline – “freedom day”, or “terminus” date – back any further, and seems focused on ensuring that the “exciting new journey” can begin. Plainly, he wants to be seen as the man who ended lockdown. However, it should also have crossed the prime minister’s mind that Mr Javid seems to be uncannily well-attuned to the increasingly restive mood on the Conservative backbenches.

His forced resignation from the Treasury in 2019 – an ugly business involving Dominic Cummings – can’t have been forgotten, or forgiven; and “the Saj” is a man with undimmed ambition, who put in a respectable showing in the last Tory leadership election.

No sooner had he put the phone down from promising Mr Johnson to be his good and faithful servant than he was out on manoeuvres, transmitting coded but clear messages about scrapping “lockdown”. Covid cases are going up by 60 per cent a week, and hospitalisations and deaths are also rising – and will rise further – after the usual lags.

The link between infection and severe illness or death has been weakened, but not broken entirely; and with such a rate of spread, cases as well as hardship will inevitably increase, and possibly at an alarming rate.

Herd immunity is still some way away, and the young are relatively poorly protected from the disease. There is no reason now, in either medical or epidemiological terms, to be as certain as Mr Javid that the plan for 19 July will proceed smoothly.

It was always supposed to be the case that data – not dates – should drive policy. If Mr Javid continues to depart from that cardinal rule he will regret it, but – rather more to the point – it will cost lives.