Vladimir Putin has underestimated the hostility in Russia to his war

Although Russia’s advance into Ukraine continues, it seems that not everything has gone according to plan for Vladimir Putin – and we know that, despite Russia’s denials, he did have a detailed plan for a full-scale invasion, just as US and UK intelligence showed.

UK ministers claimed more than 450 Russian troops had been killed – more than the 157 Ukrainians – as Russia “failed” in its initial goals. According to UK intelligence: “It is unlikely that Russia has achieved its planned Day 1 military objectives. Ukrainian forces have provided fierce resistance across all axes of Russia’s advance.”

This verdict could prove premature, as Russia’s full military might has not have been unleashed yet. But Ukraine has learnt painful lessons from Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and is better prepared. The bravery of its people is a foretaste of the resistance movement, probably armed by the UK and some of its allies, that Russia will face. Mr Putin’s mission in Ukraine might never be fully accomplished. Some UK government advisers believe he has overreached and that Ukraine might even turn into a rerun of Russia’s disastrous adventure in Afghanistan.

However, the west’s sanctions will take months to bite and the Russian president has factored them in, knowing that in the past, they have lapsed as western nations opted for a reset in relations with Moscow. This time, they will have to act differently, and be prepared for a long haul without a new pact with the devil. That is easy to say now but will require an iron will and huge sacrifices that include economic harm.

Some UK ministers dare to hope that interrupting the luxury lifestyles of the oligarchs who keep Mr Putin in power may prove a potent weapon. If the “have yachts” lose their access to Britain’s private schools, these ministers think, they might turn against the president and topple him in a palace coup. The Russian military might even display doubts about an endless guerrilla war and occupying a country as vast as Ukraine.

In time, Russia’s “have nots” might pose a greater threat to Mr Putin. Protests against the war on the streets have been bigger than expected under such an authoritarian regime; 1,667 people have been arrested in 53 cities, according to the OVD-Info rights monitor. A petition against the invasion has reportedly been signed by more than half a million people and members of Russia’s sporting and cultural elite, often wheeled out in support of Mr Putin, have expressed concern about his actions.

The street protests suggest a generational divide; they include many young adults who get their news from social media rather than state-controlled television and newspapers. Older people might be more sympathetic in principle to Mr Putin’s revanchist goals, but some of them might recoil from his ruthless means of achieving them in Ukraine.

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Many politicians and experts around the world are trying to guess Mr Putin’s desired end game in Ukraine but only one person really knows it. However, his ambitions could be tempered by domestic pressures. A fall in living standards could also turn his restless people against him; that is a powerful argument for immediately imposing tougher sanctions. A “fatigue factor” may damage him after his 22 years in power.

The 69-year-old Russian president is unlikely to lose much sleep over the street protests; he appears increasingly isolated and to be more concerned about his place in history than short-term popularity.  He did not bother to prepare the ground in advance to win public support for the invasion. Although he was right to calculate that Nato would not respond militarily for fear of sparking a third world war, hubris may have led him to underestimate the hostility at home.

In seeking to ensure his legacy, Mr Putin might just have made his biggest mistake and hastened his own departure.