The west can use its economic clout to support Ukraine and isolate Russia

The battle for control of Ukraine continues to rage. Western pressure on Russia has been ramped up. A humanitarian catastrophe looms. And the stakes were raised even more dramatically today when President Putin put Russia’s nuclear deterrent on high alert.

In the midst of such chaos, it is hard to think strategically about the long-term consequences of Russia’s actions on its relationship with the rest of the world. So far, the response of the west has been tactical. There has been the tightening up of sanctions on Russia, most recently the exclusion of some Russian banks from the Swift international payments network.

There has also, at last, been the welcome shift by Germany on the issue of exporting arms to Ukraine, something that it previously refused to do. There will be massive humanitarian aid to the Ukrainian people, and as this newspaper argued yesterday, there is a profound need for Britain to provide sanctuary for refugees.

But we must help more. How can the west do so in practical terms? The military conflict is evolving very swiftly, and it serves no purpose to become involved in that. Eventually, there will have to be some sort of ceasefire. We cannot know the terms under which that will happen, or the timing, and until then, providing physical support within Ukraine will remain extremely difficult.

But the rest of Europe, with the US and other allies, can start planning now for the medical and other resources that will be needed under different possible outcomes. We need to be ready when the fighting stops.

Next, the west has only begun to scratch the surface in terms of damaging the interests of the members of the Russian elite who support the regime. The wealthy associates of President Putin want to enjoy the glitzy lifestyles that the rest of the world offers. They want access to European ski resorts, and their children to be educated in British and American universities.

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So far, a few notable individuals have been targeted and their movements restricted. There has also been a move to clamp down on the issue of the so-called “golden passports” given to wealthy individuals and their families, providing EU citizenship in exchange for investing in the countries that offer them. The net can, and should, go much wider. Europe should show that it cannot be bought.

Finally, we have only just begun to increase the financial pressure on President Putin’s regime. The exclusion of some Russian banks from the Swift system for international money transfer is an important step forward. It is impossible to cut the country out of international transactions completely.

If it sells its oil to China, it will find some way of getting paid for it, but the important fact to remember is that Russia is a relatively small economy, accounting for less than 2 per cent of the world total. The US, Europe and the other western allies are vastly larger, together comprising well over half of global output – the US alone accounts for 25 per cent.

The US president Theodore Roosevelt popularised the saying that America should “speak softly and carry a big stick”. The west has no need now to speak softly to Russia – the time for that is long past – but in economic terms, it certainly carries the big stick. It must use that power, both to show the Russian people that their leader has committed them to isolation, and to support Ukraine as a true and continuing member of the global community.