It’s not all sunshine for Starmer, but Sunak faces a mountain to climb

It’s a damning indictment of the present state of the Conservative Party that it can no longer get its spin right. Having skilfully allowed the canard that they were expecting the loss of around 1,000 seats, picking a figure at the outer range of academic estimates, they now look to be breaching even their own overly pessimistic worst-case benchmark. In its place have come euphemisms and dry understatements, some very brave faces and barely concealed despair. Now, instead, the party’s messengers say it’s been a “tough night” and – magnificently pitched – “at the upper end of disappointing”.

In the old cliche, it has been a perfect storm for the Conservatives. Labour, simply by moving to the centre ground, tackling antisemitism in its ranks, and making a passing show of credibility, has recovered from its nadir of December 2019. The Liberal Democrats at last seem to be emerging from the long shadow cast by their participation in the coalition government. The Greens are also making a spirited challenge in rural England, and independents have also bitten a chunk out of the Tory vote. No less ominously, right-leaning Conservatives, often enthusiastic fans of Boris Johnson and Brexit, have stayed home, judging that Rishi Sunak is too centrist, or even socialist.

Mr Sunak is, then, being assailed by all parties and all sides, and the effect has been amplified by some tentative evidence of the kind of anti-Tory tactical voting last seen in any strength in 2001. Sir Keir Starmer, on the other hand, is also set to benefit from the nervous breakdown currently overwhelming the SNP and a modest Scottish Labour recovery, with more seats at Westminster than at any time since 2010.

That, of course, does not necessarily mean that Sir Keir can look forward to the kind of landslide enjoyed by Tony Blair in 1997. He is starting from too far behind to be confident of that. On the BBC’s projected national share of the vote, Labour stands at around 35 per cent, some nine points ahead of the Conservatives. The implied swing from the last general election might well mean Sir Keir would be prime minister with a modest working majority in parliament, but there remains something for Mr Sunak to play, or at least pray, for.

The much-vaunted realignment of British politics after the 2016 Referendum, which turned again in 2019 to the great personal advantage of Mr Johnson, has now begun to unravel. The Leavers who backed Ukip, the Brexit Party and Mr Johnson’s Conservatives are now defecting to Labour. At the same time, Conservative Remain voters have also been switching to Labour and, more markedly, to the Liberal Democrats. The great national “Get Brexit Done” alliance of voters Mr Johnson assembled in 2019 has more or less disintegrated. Brexit is closed as a live political debate and a winning issue for the Tories, arguably now victims of their own success. But further than that, Brexit is now judged to have been a failure across the country, and the party most associated with it, the Conservatives, are taking the blame.

Psephology aside, it’s not difficult to understand why the Tories have lost so much ground. There is disappointment everywhere – the cost of living crisis, the state of public services, strikes, sleaze, the Truss disaster, Partygate and the collapse of Mr Johnson’s administration from under him, sewage in the rivers and on the coastline, too few houses built in the right places at the right prices and rents, Windrush and similar scandals, and now ID-less voters turned away at the polls. The great sloganeered opportunities of Brexit, “building back better”, “levelling up” and “the people’s priorities” have painfully failed to materialise. After 13 years, it is little wonder that the voters feel it is time for change.

Mr Sunak has made his own mistakes, especially on failing to sack flawed members of his top team, and to many voters his vast personal wealth seems to make him look more out of touch than he is. He understands full well the mess he inherited and the challenges he faces. He is professional and competent. He has begun to fix Brexit and put the public finances on a firmer footing. He can fairly plead that the pandemic and Putin’s war in Ukraine are not his fault (though he is a Brexiteer). His problem is the voters aren't listening.

Mr Sunak is right to identify key economic targets as the way to win back lost support, and he and his chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, still have a year to oversee a potential economic improvement with inflation, interest rates and taxes down, and growth returning. Historically, governments, even bad ones, tend to pick up support as general election polling day approaches, and Mr Sunak can try to leverage his narrow advantage in his personal ratings compared to Sir Keir. Some voters might even be swayed by the Tories’ cynical culture wars. Mr Sunak still enjoys all the formidable advantages of incumbency, and a healthy parliamentary majority. He may even enjoy some luck. But it is now he, not Sir Keir, who faces a mountain to climb.