The Tory leadership contest is now Penny Mordaunt’s to lose

Tory leadership campaigns usually turn up a few surprises, the occasional humiliation and numerous puzzles; sometimes all three. The 2022 contest is no exception.

The most pleasant surprise, at least for her, was the breakthrough for Penny Mordaunt. It is a slight puzzle because although she has always polled well among Tory members, figured well in the bookmakers’ slates and is popular among MPs, her second-place status – beating three cabinet ministers – was stronger than expected. The puzzle is only whether her impressive backing is down to Machiavellian “vote lending” by others, or extraordinarily skilful political and expectations management.

It seems most likely to be the latter because there is no obvious reason why the expected frontrunner, Rishi Sunak, or the others would boost Ms Mordaunt artificially. Indeed, there would be every reason to suppress her vote because she always polls so well among Tory activists.

It is still early days, with plenty of time for shocks, scandals, gaffes and genuine misunderstandings, but if Ms Mordaunt makes it to the final two who go on the activists’ vote, the leadership seems hers to lose. All of the run-off polls suggest she would beat any current contender, by a greater or smaller margin: she’s odds on.

Having said that, Ms Mordaunt is far from invincible and will struggle as much as any other contender to present a convincing plan to deal with the post-Brexit economic challenges. The outlines of cakeism can just be discerned through Ms Mordaunt’s resolute but foggy rhetoric. The fact she was inspired to go into politics when she saw sailors and ships return from the Falklands conflict is touching, but doesn’t pay anyone’s gas bills.

It is hard to win any leadership contest, but perhaps surprisingly easy to lose and be humbled in the process. Jeremy Hunt, runner-up in 2019, former health and foreign secretary, respected chair of the health select committee and previously widely liked as a rare voice of reason, obviously decided to veer off to the right and promptly fell off the bicycle he’s often seen with. His rash plan to expand the Rwanda deportation scheme and choice of Esther McVey as a kind of running mate was bizarre and unconvincing. He ended up with two less votes than he had nominations. A wasted opportunity.

Another victim of his own errors of judgment was Nadhim Zahawi. He had the distinction of being the only candidate to say how he’d make deep cuts to spending, by lopping 20 per cent off departmental budgets, but that sort of thing is a truth too far even in today’s Tory party. Suella Braverman, by contrast, scraped through by victimising poor people on social security – still a reliable standby for a Tory on the make.

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As for more puzzles, we have Kemi Badenoch who, as far as the public is concerned, is even more obscure than Ms Mordaunt or Tom Tugendhat. She has developed something of a cult following, orchestrated for whatever reason by Michael Gove. And if her tally of 40 votes is “all her own work”, it will certainly propel her into the cabinet. She has dangerous ideas about the independence of the Bank of England, trans rights, net zero and the reality about race in Britain, but her talent and ability is perfectly apparent, if misguided.

After another clownish performance at Prime Minister’s Questions, the relatively dignified conduct of these wannabe replacements for Boris Johnson, and their constant talk of integrity and trust, is cause for some cautious optimism. It is telling, though, that the only candidate who published anything like a detailed plan for the future, Sajid Javid, didn’t even make it onto the ballot paper.

Like GP appointments, flights and computer chips, there is a desperate shortage of ideas at the top of the Tory party.