The prime minister is still in trouble – and his troubles aren’t going away

It seems that Partygate may be going quiet for a while. Like some sort of embarrassing rash that flares up from time to time, the immediate sources of irritation will be absent.

The government’s last-minute decision to release its backbenchers from their pledge of loyalty – and to vote with their conscience on referring Boris Johnson to the Commons privileges committee – avoided gross embarrassment.

Whatever their public protestations, many Conservative MPs in marginal seats were reluctant to abandon their own political futures to the uncertainties of Partygate – and Mr Johnson’s reputation for probity. Thus was a possible parliamentary defeat avoided.

Mr Johnson has survived, again, and some of his principal rivals have self-destructed, but his colleagues are once more feeling the heat of public opinion. The gamble of playing for time hasn’t paid off.

In a similar spirit of deference to the upcoming local elections, the Metropolitan Police won’t issue any more fixed penalty notices (FPNs) for the time being. So far, the police have most managed to avoid their decisions being seen as overtly political. An avalanche of FPNs arriving in Downing Street on the day before polling, say, wouldn’t be a happy coincidence for any of the relevant parties.

Some respite, then – and a little more time for the public and parliamentarians to reflect on the state of the nation.

It is certainly apparent that memories of the sacrifices and agonies suffered by the public during the pandemic are not fading fast, war in Ukraine or not. The media caravan moves on, and political memories do tend to be short, but people don’t forget when hundreds of thousands of loved ones have died, and millions more suffered severe or life-changing injuries in the form of long Covid.

Indeed, the deaths are still happening. The attempts to minimise the criminality and hypocrisy during lockdown with quips about “cake” and a mere nine-minute episode aren’t working. In fact, they sound patronising and are counterproductive. Coupled with the lack of prime ministerial contrition (behind the regret at getting caught) and the blatant delaying tactics, it feels very much as though Downing Street is adding insult to injury.

The prime minister is still in trouble – and his troubles aren’t going away. The country doesn’t wish to “move on”, but seeks truth and justice, and a leader it can trust. Most of all, folk yearn for some hope that the cost of living crisis will subside, yet there is no sign of it.

The Conservative Party will surely be mauled badly in the local elections. The spin will be that their performance isn’t much worse than the last time the seats were contested, in 2018, when Theresa May was struggling and Labour under Jeremy Corbyn were having some unaccustomed fun. However, compared with the 2019 general election, the Conservatives will suffer a heavy swing against them, and with all the opposition parties reviving in a variety of pincer movements.

Conservatives in their heartlands will be especially perturbed by the return of the Liberal Democrats, encouraged as they are by their by-election wins in Chesham and Amersham and North Shropshire, and the modest inroads the Greens are making in the countryside. Naturally, the Tories will be all but wiped out in Scotland, again, by the SNP, and there are signs the red wall is turning against them and to Labour. It would be a surprise if Labour did not gain Wakefield at the by-election (a more historic achievement than it sounds).

None of that means that the Tories will lose the next election, but it does mean that the Conservative Party will be considering its chances of retaining power in a way they haven’t had to do since Mr Johnson became prime minister. Is he still a winner?

Another factor is the remarkable strength of the Labour front bench collectively, and in particular its leader. This week Keir Starmer sounded more prime ministerial than ever, and it was unlucky for Mr Johnson that both the leader of the opposition and the Westminster SNP leader, Ian Blackford, were both on top form.

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Labour is benefiting from the assured performances of the likes of Wes Streeting, Angela Rayner, Rachel Reeves, Yvette Cooper and Jon Ashworth, whereas the Tories ought to be ashamed of the way Nadine Dorries, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Priti Patel, Dominic Raab and Rishi Sunak struggle to discharge their responsibilities: impractical, unfair policies fronted by ministers lacking credibility.

No political party, ever, is free of sleaze and the sole custodian of integrity. At the moment, though, it is the Conservatives, from the top down, who seem to be in a state of terminal accident-prone decline. Beyond launching bizarre gimmicky culture war stunts, such as the Rwanda asylum plan, they appear intellectually exhausted. The leadership make their MPs and activists repeat absurd “lines” only to abandon them hours later – as with the Owen Paterson saga and continually during Partygate.

This lack of grip is perhaps simply because they have been in power for more than a decade, and tumultuous times at that, and that for most of that period have usually faced weak opposition (at least in England). They’re complacent, and haven’t had to think much about anything except Brexit and Mr Corbyn since David Cameron resigned. Right now, though, they don’t have much more to offer than a few weary slogans and a liar for a leader.