The consequences of a nuclear ‘incident’ are too appalling to contemplate

“If there is an explosion, it is the end of everything”. There’s nothing greatly exaggerated about Volodymyr Zelensky’s warnings about a serious hit to any of Ukraine’s 15 nuclear power plants. It is like the launching of a nuclear warhead, moving the war into a wholly new dimension, with unknowable consequences.

The release of a cloud of nuclear dust into the air could blow in every direction across Europe and Russia, poisoning people, land, water supplies and the food chain across Eurasia. It could conceivably cause more damage than the accidental explosion at Chernobyl in 1986 (a site now under Russian occupation, once again).

Reckless as ever, Russian forces have apparently intentionally shelled Europe’s largest nuclear power station at Zaporizhzhia, in the southeast of the country. Perhaps, being open-minded, it was just as a result of incompetence or the kind of indiscriminate attacks that have characterised Russia’s “special military operation”, not that that explanation is especially reassuring. The consequences of a nuclear “incident”, whoever is responsible, are too appalling to contemplate.

There will be no peace in Ukraine for some time, perhaps for decades, if this war results in a lasting enmity and insurgent liberation campaign. For as long as the hostilities continue, however, there is an obvious benefit to both sides in agreeing some basic, minimal guidelines for the conduct of their war. Humanitarian corridors to evacuate the wounded, for example, and independent international monitoring of potential war crimes, should be of benefit to both sides. So would an embargo on attacks on nuclear facilities, and a quarantining of a specified zone around them, even if that means they would still be generating electricity – because an orderly complete shutdown might be a less safe option under pressure of bombardment.

There has never been a war on this scale fought in a country with nuclear power plants, and they represent an especial hazard not only to “local” populations but for people living many thousands of miles away, and with a dangerous, carcinogenic residue deposited randomly that will last for hundreds of years, carried on the wind or via the sea. Fukushima, Chernobyl, Three Mile Island and Windscale have all earned their infamous place in history, proving that, even in peace time, nuclear power is a risky business, with terrifying dangers.

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Those lessons should deter any leader with any care for their soldiers and civilians to avoid nuclear power plants, but Vladimir Putin follows in the unfortunate Russian tradition that places little value on individual human life. Only if he feared that a radioactive cloud would head for the Kremlin might be deterred from his merciless pursuit of victory. His meteorologists would probably fear telling him the truth, however. The fact that President Putin will inherit not much more than a pile of radioactive dust in Ukraine seems not to bother him much. Some victory that will be.

So, all the world can do is to offer whatever military and humanitarian assistance it can to President Zelensky’s literally besieged government, and intensify the economic squeeze on Russia and the Kremlin’s cronies.

This has had a dramatic effect so far, but it seems doubtful that the Ukrainian government can hold out for much longer – so the sanctions need to be ramped up immediately. The protective shield of Nato has to be placed around the next likely target of Russian aggression: Moldova. There can be no let-up in sanctions or the defensive military build-up in Poland and the Baltic states until the Russian threat comes to an end.