Alexey Navalny’s political gifts could spell the beginning of the end for Vladimir Putin

A golden loo brush is an unlikely symbol of revolution – successor to the famous hammer and sickle of Marxist-Leninist times. And yet the opulent bathroom accessory, or at least a cheap replica, has been brandished on the streets of Russia in the biggest protests in years, calling for the release of opposition leader Alexey Navalny, and railing against President Putin’s abuse of power.

Elections to the Russian parliament, the Duma, are due later this year and, for what they’re worth, may mark a further weakening of Mr Putin’s hold on the respect of the Russian people.  

The loo brush is a reference to the revelation that Vladimir Putin’s cronies had built and gifted the president a vast £1bn palace. Designed in Italianate style, it features, among many other extravagances, a theatre, casino, pole dancing club, church, ice rink, vineyards plus winery, arboretum, a hookah lounge and, naturally, gold fittings in the (relatively) smallest room. No doubt it’s also close to local schools and shops, as the estate agents like to say.

It boasts its own decent slice of the Black Sea coast, and it is set in an impressive plot of some 78 square kilometres, about the size of Guernsey. Absurdly, it is supposed to be a secret, surrounded by woods, but it is too big to hide. It suggests that all involved are a little embarrassed about their folly, as well they might be.  

This obscene monument to corruption was revealed by Mr Navalny in a video that has attracted 20 million views and provoked plenty of anger. While Mr Putin looks forward to rattling around in his velvet and gilt living mausoleum, ordinary Russians struggle to get by in the prison of a nation he has built for them.

The pandemic, not well managed by the Russian authorities, has only added to the people’s grievances, especially the rampant cronyism sponsored by Mr Putin’s governing party, stagnant living standards and the constant erosion of human rights and police brutality.

There was plenty more of that on display during the protests. Last year’s constitutional referendum, probably rigged, offered Mr Putin the opportunity to remain in office until 2036, by which time he will be 84. He would then have ruled Russia for 37 years, about the same as Stalin and Lenin combined. It is not a prospect every Russian views with a warm feeling.

The rallies were called by Mr Navalny, once again languishing in a prison cell on his return from Germany, where he was successfully treated for poisoning by agents of Mr Putin. Many thousands turned out, from St Petersburg to Moscow, and Tomsk to Vladivostok, in the freezing cold. Some 3,000 remain in custody.  

Could this be the beginning of the end for Mr Putin? It seems laughable, and Mr Putin has even joked that, had he wanted to bump Mr Navalny off, he would have made a better job of it. The president has the armed forces, security services, business interests, state apparatus, nuclear weapons, national budget, much of the media and, importantly, a political party entrenched in every municipality in the federation at his disposal.

Mr Putin’s ruling United Russia party is in power in almost every town hall, oblast and province across the Russian Federation. It means they can run an effective spoils system, whereby local apparatchiks can extract bribes, perks and public money in return for loyalty to the party and the president. Where this involves crushing dissent, harassing opposition activists and ballot-stuffing, it is carried out, albeit with no great finesse. Other parties exist, but on sufferance.  

Against that, Mr Navalny, at first glance, has little. Arraigned in charges of embezzlement and, now, violating bail conditions (while in hospital), Mr Navalny cannot be a candidate. His party, Russia of the Future, is still awaiting registration by the authorities, and thus cannot officially run a campaign. 

However, Mr Navalny has other, more valuable assets, notably his bravery, returning to Russia and certain persecution for himself and his family. As the Putin palace video showed, he and his young supporters are also skilled at using the internet and social mechanisms; TikTok videos carrying the tags “Free Navalny” and “23Jan” have been seen more than 300 million times, and Mr Navalny had great fun making a prank call to one of his would-be assassins during which the secret agent admitted they had laced Mr Navalny’s underpants with a nerve agent.

More than anything, though, Mr Navalny has political gifts. Where, like all autocrats, Mr Putin has grown complacent and relies on propaganda and repression to hold on to power, Mr Navalny has needed to be more energetic and innovative. Deprived of the chance to run his own candidates, he has instead come up with a “smart voting system”, where he urges supporters to tactically support whoever is best placed to defeat United Russia.

His nickname for Putin’s vehicle, “the party of crooks and thieves”, has caught on, yet Mr Putin’s own indifference to his people does much of Mr Navalny’s work for him. Mr Putin might be able to make something of a more assertive attitude by President Biden, and he might even consider another foreign military display of Russian might, essentially a political distraction. Yet there are signs of Putin fatigue among the Russian people, who owe him nothing. Mr Putin simply seems to have no idea what to do about Mr Navalny. Maybe he’ll come up with something next time he goes for a walk in the grounds of his new palace.