Mr Blair is right: Irish republicans must abandon violence now

One of the Prime Minister's great strengths has always been his ability to analyse a problem with honesty and clarity. This he did yesterday in his speech in Belfast. His explanation of why the republicans clung to the paramilitary option, even after they had made the historic decision to take the democratic route to their goals, was unusually thoughtful for a politician.

Tony Blair understands the republican psychology, the fear of being treated as second-class citizens, as Roman Catholics once were. But his observation that the survival of the IRA as an "active paramilitary organisation" is now the main obstacle to progress is also acute. He did not quite say that Sinn Fein's military wing used to give it leverage in political negotiations. But he was absolutely right to point out that it is now holding Sinn Fein, and the wider nationalist cause, back. The unionist case, as he said, is unanswerable. Why should they continue to share power with the political wing of an organisation that has not explicitly disowned violence?

For some time after the Good Friday Agreement, symbolic gestures were effective. Unionists could be reassured, a little, by respected international figures being blindfolded and taken to arms dumps where some weapons had been put "beyond use". But these were only symbolic steps to the destination of actual disarmament, which has not yet happened.

Simply being on that journey has been an achievement. Any reasonable citizen of Northern Ireland recalling the situation at the time of Tony Blair's first speech in Belfast, two weeks after he took office, ought to reflect that the gains since then far outweigh the losses. The devolved government has started to normalise Northern Ireland politics. It is telling that one of the issues raised by the suspension of the executive is the fate of the proposal by Martin McGuinness, the Sinn Fein education minister, to abolish the 11-plus exam in Northern Ireland, which has little to do with sectarian divisions. The bottom line is that there are fewer funerals than there were.

But, although the "crunch time" of which Mr Blair spoke could have been postponed, it could not be put off forever, and it is the republicans' mistakes that have brought matters to a head. The IRA's adventures in Latin America with drug-running terrorists did much to destroy Sinn Fein's credibility in the US. But it was Sinn Fein's shenanigans in the Assembly building which so damaged its credibility at home. That the party should engage in a bit of political snooping may not be very shocking – but the possession of lists of names and home addresses of prison officers inflicted serious harm. The republicans have played into their opponents' hands and must face the consequences.

The consequence that matters is that the IRA must stop hiding behind its ambiguous relationship with Sinn Fein. Everyone in Northern Ireland knows that nationalists have gained hugely from the Good Friday Agreement. In the 1998 referendum, 90 per cent of them voted for it. As great a proportion would no doubt vote to sustain it today. But among unionists, the story is very different. Only about half of them voted for it four years ago, and fewer would do so today. But, as Mr Blair says, that is not because they are hostile to the principles of the Agreement so much as that they believe they have not been fully or fairly implemented. They are right.

The time has come for the republicans to make up their minds – and commit themselves exclusively to peaceful and democratic means.