Based on past mistakes, it would be wise for Britain to delay fully lifting lockdown

Should Britain delay the relaxation of lockdown scheduled for 21 June? The short answer, working on the precautionary principle and the persistent mistakes on timings made over the past 15 months, is “yes”.

After months of improvement, driven by the lockdown imposed (albeit too tardily) in January and the success of the vaccination programme, the figures on Covid infections, hospitalisations and deaths are starting to turn upwards. The number of cases recorded of the Indian variant has doubled in a week.

The reasons are obvious; the rise of the so-called Indian variant of coronavirus and the easing of restrictions in recent weeks have conspired to push things in the wrong direction. There are now places where the new variant is not only prevalent but driving an exponential upward increase in cases even steeper than the previous versions of coronavirus. The virus, more infective than its predecessors, is not going to be constrained by any local lockdowns, even if they were organised better than last week’s farcical efforts.

The suppression of the older Kent and original variants of the virus in recent weeks have given the impression that the pandemic was levelling out, in fact, the new variant was picking up the “slack” from the gradual suppression of the older variants. Now the danger, if not the probability, is that it will let rip across the country.

That, after all, is the experience of the last year. The link between Covid infection and consequent hospitalisation is weaker than it was last year because the vulnerable are far better protected, thanks to having had their vaccination, and because palliative treatments and techniques in hospitals are so much better. But the link is not broken.

The vaccines are far less effective in those who have only had a single dose (protection of only about a third), and even in those who’ve been double dosed there is only a protection rate of about two thirds. The bald fact remains that far too many people under the age of 30 have had no jabs at all, and far too many under the age of 55 have only had a single jab. Younger people have been less susceptible to serious illness, but they can still suffer badly, and some will suffer life-changing after-effects from long Covid.

Herd immunity is nowhere near complete, and a wise, prudent approach would be to reverse the current assumption driving policy. So, rather than assuming the 21 June unlock will proceed unless the data goes wrong, a warning should now be issued that the 21 June date will be delayed until the vaccine programme has covered the majority of the adult population with double dose protection. Then, and only then, is it going to be safe to open the borders more fully and permit many more gatherings indoors.

The delay to 21 June would no doubt come as a bitter disappointment to families and businesses who have suffered so many privations; but the lesson of the pandemic is that the alternative is not a return to normality but a longer, harsher lockdown to be enacted sometime in July or August, possibly with lives lost needlessly during the dither and delays.

The government always says it is being driven by data, not dates – now is the moment to level with people that the next date in the roadmap will have to be changed.