Prime minister Liz Truss is proud to declare that she is “prepared to take unpopular decisions”. Her argument is that it is sometimes necessary to do so in order to reform the economy so as to promote growth. That is a perfectly valid argument, especially as the economy enters recession, as the Bank of England has confirmed, if the decisions are the right ones and will indeed have the desired effect.
What the prime minister seems to be doing, bizarrely, is more akin to pursuing unpopularity for its own sake. Moving away from the senseless populist boosterism of the Boris Johnson regime is one thing, but launching an “unpopulist” government? That is quite another.
It is quite a list of vote-losing initiatives, whatever their eventual, marginal effects on economic growth might be. According to the unattributable briefings, the Truss government seeks to jam seven years’ worth of action into the two or so years left in office.
Boosting banker bonuses, for example, seems rather out of touch when so many families are so hard-pressed – considering that the six- or seven-figure sums represent a large multiple of average incomes, let alone the miserable pay rises most will see this year.
It might be all very well if their enhanced wealth was to “trickle down”, but in the longer run, it will only make the banks take bigger risks with other people’s money, with the eventual bill for failure being sent to the taxpayer. By contrast, the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, wants to reduce the modest benefits allowed to 120,000 unable to work full time. Incentives seem badly mismatched at these different ends of society. Severe labour shortages will remain undisturbed by this cruel and ineffective move.
The disproportionately large imminent tax cuts for the rich, through the reversal of the national insurance hike, is another example. So is the rumoured reduction in stamp duty for those buying multimillion-pound mansions – as if the housing market needed any more of a boost. Cuts in corporation tax will also benefit the largest corporations most.
At a time of ever-increasing inequalities in income and wealth, and resentment at the structural unfairness such trends represent, it does indeed seem brave for any prime minister to press on with such economically questionable policies. Even if they were to transform the prospects of the economy, such results will not be apparent by the time of the next election... or ever.
Yet Ms Truss goes further. Fracking might arguably be a useful contribution to long-term energy security – but surely not at the cost of blowing up Lancashire, home to many marginal parliamentary constituencies. Yet the relaxation of the seismic threshold for shale gas drilling will very likely deliver a seismic political shock to the Conservatives at the next election, with no immediate benefit to gas bills.
And only a prime minister who is a glutton for punishment would take delight in ending the ban on live transportation of animals, the fur trade and the import of foie gras, all inherently inhumane practices. At least the bankers will be able to buy even more fur coats to keep them nice and warm, and spread some more foie gras on their sourdough toast.
Many of these emotionally charged moves were missing from the 2019 election manifesto, and it is difficult to believe that a government with so many battles to fight wants to offend animal rights campaigners. Then again, Ms Truss does say she wants to take unpopular decisions.
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Even when ministers do decide to do something the public appreciate, such as the energy price guarantee, they feel compelled to attach some ugly features to it, such as refusing to fund the policy through an extended windfall tax on energy producers, again something that voters find bewildering.
The bigger picture is of a government struggling with a post-Brexit economy in recession, with high debt levels, accelerating inflation, poor investment and stagnant productivity and real wage growth. None of those fundamental problems will be solved by the reckless Truss-Kwarteng dash for growth. It will boost consumption, especially by the rich, depress investment, fuel inflation, devalue sterling, and prompt the Bank of England to hike interest rates further and faster – if the Bank is still allowed by Mr Kwarteng to pursue its anti-inflationary remit.
At the moment, British economic policy resembles a driver with their feet on the brake and the accelerator at the same time, as the Bank tries to extract the spending power the Treasury keeps trying to pump into the economy. This is not a sustainable approach. It isn’t just that the latest version of Conservative economic policy won’t work, but that it doesn’t even deserve to work.
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