Jo Swinson could change the face of British politics if she plays her cards right

Congratulations to Jo Swinson. The first female leader of the Liberal Democrats, or any of its antecedent parties, fought a clean campaign against Sir Ed Davey, who put in a respectable performance. He too deserves to have a major role in the years ahead.

The contrast between the relative unity, thoughtfulness, rationality and courtesy in the Liberal Democrats’ leadership election stands in stark and favourable contrast to that other contest that’s been dragging on through the summer. Now it is only the Labour Party among the UK’s major political groupings that has its glass ceiling intact.

Ms Swinson is the fourth leader the party has had in a decade, but, as a young woman with much goodwill behind her, there is no reason why she should not stick around for much longer. She will certainly have the incentive to do so. Liberal, progressive values have not been under such sustained assault globally since the end of the Second World War, and the intensive work required to campaign for a second Brexit referendum is all too painfully obvious.

Ms Swinson has energy, imagination and a certain common decency about her that will hold her in excellent stead as she gets on with the job. She should also have the support of Sir Ed, a bigger membership, and her newly enlarged groups in local councils, in Europe and at Westminster. She should soon be welcoming one more, from Brecon and Radnorshire, a sure-fire by-election gain. Refugees from the Conservatives should also boost the party’s presence and morale. The fragments of Change UK and The Independent Group should think again and follow Chuka Umunna into the principal progressive force in politics now.

Ms Swinson and her party also owe a considerable debt of honour to Sir Vince Cable. Despite losing his Twickenham seat in the 2015 general election he has since restored some of the party’s previous strength. Most of all, and again in sharp relief against the Labour side, he has positioned the Liberal Democrats as the “Stop Brexit” party, the challengers to the government and Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party alike. Whereas the party faced oblivion after the 2015 election – in which Ms Swinson also lost her seat to the SNP – it can look forward with a degree of optimism to the immediate future.

At something around 20 per cent in the opinion polls, however, the party need not run away with itself. Much of that vote could be said to have been “borrowed” from the other main parties, because of Brexit. The 2016 referendum and the rise of Boris Johnson and Brexit fundamentalism boosted the Lib Dems, at first modestly in 2017, and then more emphatically this year. Jeremy Corbyn managed to detoxify the Lib Dems by accident, but they may not enjoy such good fortune indefinitely.

The vagaries of first past the post have always disadvantaged the Liberal Democrats, even though at least before 2015, they were adept at making the most of the vote by targeting seats. At the next election, though, the voting system will be turned into a lottery by the emergence of four main national parties, plus a substantial Green Party presence in some areas, and the SNP and Plaid in Scotland and Wales respectively. Such four, five or six cornered races will mean a large number of narrow and almost inadvertent results.

In such circumstances, Ms Swinson is wise not to rule out arrangements, up to and including coalition, with any of the other parties. The Lib Dems might not have the strength of MP numbers to throw their weight around, and in any case the electorate might make their options rather limited, just as they did in 2010. That said, Ms Swinson is also right to say that both major parties are led by Brexiteers, and there seems little basis for agreement while that persists. If and when Brexit is settled, either by leaving the EU or remaining, the political landscape may be very different. A no-deal Brexit, even a failed attempt at one, would yield the most dramatic re-alignment of all.

For now Ms Swinson can happily concentrate on leading the nascent Remain coalition and the campaign for a Final Say on Brexit – essential whichever side of the argument eventually prevails.

Ms Swinson, not well-known yet to the public, will find it difficult to punch through the hoo-haa about Johnson and the continuing psychodramas at the top of the Labour Party. Yet many of Ms Swinson’s predecessors, Lib Dem rock stars such as Nick Clegg, Paddy Ashdown and David Steel, were fairly obscure in the early phase of their leaderships. Tim Farron remains so. No doubt Ms Swinson will be looking to build a “profile” in the coming months. She should draw the line at shameless exposure but make herself available to most other media outlets, and need not be fussy about her status. Her appeal will be based on sweet reason, the antidote to Johnson, Corbyn and Farage. The public needs to get to know her, and they can do that just as well with Lorraine Kelly as with Emily Maitlis.

Against the frantic, divided and fanatical cacophonies emanating from Labour and the Conservatives, and Nicola Sturgeon’s strident and obsessive crusade in Scotland, Ms Swinson will be the still, small voice of calm. She deserves to do well.