Brazil is in steadier hands with President Lula in charge

Ominously, Jair Bolsonaro, “the Tropical Trump”, has been refusing to accept his (admittedly narrow) defeat by the leftist Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, or Lula – a kind of Brazilian Jeremy Corbyn. It is quite the swing, and the first time an incumbent Brazilian head of government has been defeated in a (mostly) orderly election.

It suggests, if nothing else, that the spirit of Brazilian democracy – only truly free since 1985 – has survived the predations of the Bolsonaro years. It is good news for Brazil and the world, given that Brazil has such formidable economic potential and is the guardian of one of the world’s great rain forests, badly denuded under Mr Bolosnaro. Development and environmental protection do not have to be in conflict, and were not under much of Lula’s previous spell in power.

Brazil is no stranger to coups, but Mr Bolsonaro’s chances of overturning the poll, Trump-style, seem slim. Despite some light voter harassment by the police, and years of provinces and cities under the control of Mr Bolsonaro’s allies being favoured for federal funds, he still lost.

Generous welfare payments to the poor (Mr Bolsonaro is a populist, not a free market fundamentalist) also failed to move the dial sufficiently to save the president. “Bolsonaro Pays More” was the slogan; many voters may have decided that Lula and his Workers Party might pay even more.

Many of Mr Bolsonaro’s own close allies have already conceded defeat, and many potential foreign backers have already phoned in their congratulations to Lula, with Joe Biden, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin forming an unlikely international welcome committee. Mr Bolsonaro will now find more time to spend with his obsessions, but he is down rather than out.

As with Donald Trump in the US, and Silvio Berlusconi and his nationalist allies in Italy, the populist right as a force in Brazil isn’t going away. In other words: Mr Bolsonaro – or someone like him – might well challenge for power again.

For now, all can breathe a sigh of relief, as the “lungs of the world” are in better hands. It is especially notable that Mr Bolsonaro’s fall comes just before the upcoming Cop27 climate summit (though the president remains in office until 1 January 2023, and as such may attend the meeting in Egypt rather than Lula, which is a pity).

Under President Bolsonaro’s reckless regime, Brazil – an emerging economy – became the sixth-largest source of carbon dioxide emissions. He weakened environmental enforcement agencies, cutting budgets and staff while making it harder to prosecute environmental criminals. The government’s dismissive attitude to conservation and the climate emergency gave the green light to the cattle ranchers, land-grabbers and illegal loggers, with wildlife, indigenous peoples and the health of the planet itself placed in jeopardy.

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Whatever else may be said about Lula – and he has had a chequered career – he will at least be less of a menace to the planet than was Mr Bolsonaro. He has promised to protect the rainforest, and environmental and indigenous groups endorsed his candidature. He is “open to international cooperation to protect the Amazon”. That’s encouraging.

Lula has a showbiz reputation at home and a global presence – and a positive one when set alongside his opponent. Yet the challenges facing Brazil, after a pandemic in which the nation suffered all the more for Mr Bolsonaro’s Trumpish disregard for human life, remain formidable. As in every nation in the world, inflation and energy shortages tend to put additional pressure on natural resources, and a rainforest has no votes in any presidential election.

The world will judge Lula on his actions, and should not expect a complete environmental revolution; but, when contemplating the alternative, it is a moment of great hope.