Israel cannot afford to risk alienating its allies over Iran

The wider Middle East conflict that many people have feared since the horrific attack by Hamas in Israel last October moved a big, worrying step closer at the weekend, when Iran launched a barrage of more than 300 drones and missiles in its first ever direct assault on Israeli territory.

Thankfully, 99 per cent of the weapons were intercepted by Israel and allies including the US, UK, France and Jordan, and casualties were minimal. However, this alarming episode might not be over yet. Iran’s retaliation for the airstrike on its consulate in Damascus two weeks earlier, which Israel has not admitted but the whole world knows it carried out, was inevitable. Tehran’s response was dramatic enough to allow it to think it will deter Israel, but it also gave Israel and its allies time to prepare their defences and limit the damage.

Iran says “the matter can be deemed concluded”, but the ball is now in Israel’s court and there are real fears that the tit-for-tat battle will continue with another Israeli intervention on Iranian soil. Tehran warns that its next retaliation will be “much larger” if Israel responds.

Ominously, Israel has warned that its campaign is “not over yet”. So this is a very dangerous moment, and it is vital that a cycle of escalation is avoided. As Rishi Sunak rightly argued on Sunday, “calm heads” must now prevail. This is a time for restraint by all sides to prevent a drift into a regional conflagration that Iran and many other countries in the region do not want.

The issue is whether Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, listens to the wise advice from Joe Biden, Mr Sunak and other G7 leaders to draw a line under this affair, or is swayed by right-wing voices in Israel warning him that not retaliating would look like weakness.

Mr Netanyahu regards Iran as the biggest threat to his country and has come close to launching a full-scale assault on it in the past. The danger now is that he opportunistically uses the moment – for example, to attack Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities. If any response by Iran or its proxies were to hit one of the many American bases in the region, the US could be drawn into the conflict, which the reckless Mr Netanyahu might even welcome.

On Iran, the Israeli leader should quit while he is ahead. The bombing in Syria killed two Iranian generals and five military advisers. No one died during Iran’s response, though a seven-year-old girl was severely wounded. Although, as The Independent has argued, Mr Netanyahu is not the right man to be leading his country, his shaky position at home will doubtless be bolstered in the short term by the success in repelling Iran’s attack.

Unfortunately, Iran’s unjustified actions have temporarily shifted the world’s attention from the Israeli prime minister’s war without end or attainable objectives, which has brought famine and 33,000 deaths in Gaza, according to the Hamas-run health ministry. It is also regrettable that the deepening conflict in the Middle East will switch the world’s spotlight even further away from the war in Ukraine, leaving Vladimir Putin as the only winner.

Iran’s assault has unwittingly united Israel and its allies at a time when their alliance was fraying; Washington and London have rightly warned that support for Israel in its war with Hamas is not unconditional because of its indefensible tactics in Gaza. Instead, Mr Biden has reiterated America’s “ironclad support” for Israel when it comes to Iran.

There are understandable fears among Western diplomats that the unpopular Mr Netanyahu will seek to prolong the latest conflict with Iran to prop himself up at home, delay the reckoning over the 7 October attacks and his response, and reject calls for elections that would likely sweep him from power.

As recent warnings by the US and UK have shown, Mr Netanyahu cannot take Israel’s natural allies for granted on Gaza. Sadly, he has squandered the widespread feelings of sympathy and support for Israel immediately after the 7 October attack. If he now overreacts against Iran, he will deserve to suffer the same fate and alienate his country’s friends when he needs them.