One hundred days after the attack on Israel, a political solution must be found for the war in Gaza

This weekend marked 100 days since the Hamas attacks on Israel that left more than 1,200, mostly civilians, dead; more than 200 people, including children, taken hostage; and Israel’s always fragile sense of security in shreds. In the space of a few hours on 7 October, Hamas had comprehensively upset the perilous equilibrium then prevailing in the Middle East.

One hundred days, of course, is no more than a symbolic measure of time. Whether for prime ministers, governments or conflicts, however, it remains a useful juncture for comparing where we are now with where we were then. And where we are now, in terms of regional and even global politics, is a very different place from where we were then.

Within three weeks of 7 October, Israel had launched a multi-pronged military operation in pursuit of its avowed aim of destroying Hamas. No country could have left attacks on this scale without a response, and there was widespread initial sympathy for Israel’s need to secure its defence. Now that even the US, Israel’s staunchest ally, has been advising restraint, it should be clear that this sympathy is not what it was.

The overall death toll has now, at a conservative estimate, passed 22,000, with most of the casualties being Palestinians. More than 130 Israelis are believed to remain in Hamas captivity, and the conflict has spread, in ways both predictable and unpredictable, beyond the environs of Gaza where it began. The question is being asked, not unreasonably: for how much longer can this go on?

In the early days, there were glimmers of hope that the conflict would soon be over; that Israel’s military operations in Gaza would be as short, sharp and sparing of civilian lives as its officials had suggested at the outset. Talks brokered by Qatar brought the release of 105 hostages, mostly women and children, exchanged for suspensions of the offensive by Israel. There seemed little enthusiasm among regional powers to escalate the war or open another front.

The most widely predicted escalation – attacks on northern Israel by Iran-backed Hezbollah from its stronghold in southern Lebanon – has so far not happened to any serious degree. Even when the deputy leader of Hamas was assassinated in a strike on his headquarters inside southern Lebanon – a strike widely attributed to, but not admitted by, Israel – the response was angry words but no deeds. There was a similar response when a senior Hezbollah commander was killed in an airstrike a few days later.

Skirmishing continues around Israel’s northern border, but not at a significantly greater rate than before. There have been protests and some violence in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, but nothing – as yet – that might qualify as a new intifada.

There has been no overt intervention by Turkey, or Egypt, or Russia. Europe, divided over its response, has stayed largely on the sidelines. The United States was back with military hardware in the shape of the USS Gerald Ford, as well as with flurries of old-style shuttle diplomacy. Even as the US consistently vetoed calls in the UN for Israel to agree to a ceasefire, US officials, including the secretary of state Antony Blinken among others, were both in public and in private cautioning Israel to show restraint.

Widespread street demonstrations in the UK, but also in European and US cities, added another element to the equation. Meanwhile, in Israel, there are many calling for a halt to the fighting in the hope that this could secure the release of the remaining hostages.

In the end, the spread of the conflict came from quite another quarter. Houthi rebels, who control much of Yemen and are backed by Iran, started attacking traffic in the Red Sea in what they said was an effort to put pressure on Israel and its allies and force a ceasefire in Gaza. Their targets included a British warship, as well as cargo ships they said had links with Israel.

After a series of warnings from the US and the UK to the Houthis to cease their attacks, and with much container traffic being rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, the threat to one of the world’s busiest sea routes could not be ignored; the US and the UK, with the support of another half-dozen countries, struck at Houthi positions in Yemen.

While the Houthis insist they will not be deterred, the British foreign secretary, David Cameron, has held out the prospect of further strikes, and warned Iran against new support for the Houthis. Joe Biden has sent a personal message to Iran, believed to amount to a warning to stay out of the fray.

One hundred days after it began, hopes that the war in Gaza could be contained risk being dashed. There may have been no major flare-up – so far – along Israel’s borders, but Israel is now talking of a military operation in Gaza that could last into next year, and a new front has been opened – not, as forecast, by Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, but in and around the Red Sea, where many more disparate interests compete.

For better, but – alas – also for worse, this could be a turning point. In the UK, Lord Cameron and Sir Keir Starmer both hinted over the weekend that there had to be a solution that did not cost more lives, and they are right. From the intensive diplomatic efforts that have been mounted by the United States to the latest mass demonstrations in Western capitals, there is clear support for a political way out that will end the violence. This is where our efforts must be directed. As ever, firepower can only be a means to an end. The UK has to stand on the right side of history.