Iran does not want war with Israel – but what of Benjamin Netanyahu?

Last week, the British prime minister, Sir Keir Starmer, speaking for all of Israel’s friends and allies, declared that “there is no military solution here [against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon]. Nor is there a military-only solution to the conflict in Gaza.” Evidently, Benjamin Netanyahu, the most bellicose premier in Israel’s history, begs to differ.

Having failed in his political and military objectives in Gaza – Hamas remains extant and the hostages still captive – he has now opened up multiple new fronts against his nation’s enemies. Indeed, a US official is reported to have confirmed that Israel is preparing to launch a limited ground offensive in Lebanon as soon as today. It comes as Israel’s defence minister, Yoav Gallant, said on Monday that the next phase of the war against Hezbollah along the southern border of Lebanon “will begin soon”.

From Israel’s point of view, the most spectacular success in recent days has obviously been the assassination of the veteran leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah. But the mass pager detonations, the bombardment of Hezbollah facilities, and other targeted killings of commanders have left the organisation severely weakened.

It almost seems that Israel, thanks to its intelligence and technological superiority, has the ability to fire at will at its enemies.

This has left Iran – progenitor, sponsor, mentor, treasurer and quartermaster of a number of semi-detached proxies – not a little terrified on its own account. It was on a trip to Tehran that the political leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed by an Israeli rocket as recently as July.

When Mr Netanyahu warns Iran’s theocratic dictators that there is nowhere in their country – or across the Middle East – that the “long arm” of Israel cannot reach, they should need no further convincing. The security analysts say repeatedly that Iran has no wish for a full-scale, direct conflict with Israel, despite the missile attack earlier in the summer – and that wish would appear to be sincere, born of a profound sense of self-preservation.

The Iranian regime has been in trouble for many months, and at risk of revolt enacted by a people exhausted by the ayatollah’s aggression as well as their country’s isolation and international sanctions. Plainly, they do not want war with Israel – but what of Mr Netanyahu?

Suddenly energised by bold military initiatives, Israel seems to possess an unlimited appetite for audacious operations. It has already launched some further pre-emptive air assaults on the notorious Houthi rebels in Yemen (another of Iran’s cadet forces).

Few would bet against it, given the momentum that has powered Israel forward in recent days – and Israel’s unprecedented defiance, even towards its most important partner, the United States.

The US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, is reported to be furious that his Israeli counterpart gave him virtually no warning of the killing of Nasrallah; and the US president, Joe Biden, has been subject to repeated humiliation since the latest round of hostilities broke out almost a year ago.

The president, an avowed Zionist with a 50-year record of engagement in the region, must feel ill-used by Mr Netanyahu, who seems determined to do what he wants regardless of what the rest of the world thinks. Israel’s leader may well be buoyed by the possibility of the return of Donald Trump, but he seems bull-headed enough to push his luck anywhere he can – and for the time being, it is paying him political dividends.

Having failed to prevent the 7 October Hamas atrocities, or to succeed in his objectives in Gaza – leaving too many hostages behind, and Hamas a still-functioning if denuded force – his latest activities have boosted his poll ratings and appeased his extreme-right religious and political allies at home. It is that factor – his quest for political survival, more than anything else – that explains the sudden spread of the conflict into so many different theatres.

In the end, though, it will never be sufficient to guarantee Israel’s security. While the Israel Defense Forces make spectacular use of the Western weaponry mostly supplied by America and Germany, Israel is losing vital diplomatic ground. It is making new enemies, and reawakening ancient hostilities with Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.

The history of the region proves that organisations such as Hamas and Hezbollah are ready to grow new leaders and recruit an endless supply of warriors from among those who are personally traumatised by the loss of loved ones in war.

The setbacks suffered by Iran and its proxies may not prove permanent. Their proven taste for terrorism directed at soft civilian targets means that some form of gruesome revenge may be attempted before long, with or without the knowledge of Tehran.

There is, in other words, even with Israel’s military superiority imposed across the region, still no assurance that something like the 7 October tragedy will not be visited again upon the country – and still less that international shipping will continue to move freely through the Red Sea.

President Biden is right that a full-scale war in the Middle East must be averted – but, at this moment, it is not the ayatollahs he has to restrain but his old friend, Bibi.

Strange to say, it is not so much that Israel is acting as America’s puppet: it is more that the White House is being pushed around by Mr Netanyahu. With the humanitarian plight of so many looking so bleak – and talk of the situation being the most combustible since the Yom Kippur war of 1971 – how long can the West tolerate such a state of affairs?