Scrapping HS2 would be an act of betrayal that will blight the North – and the Tory party

I am passionate about this project because, time and again, we have this debate in our country about how we’re going to bring the gap between North and South together, about how we’re going to make sure that our growth is not just based on the City of London.

“High Speed Two is about changing the economic geography of this country, making sure the North and the Midlands benefit from the recovery as well.”

It is now almost exactly a decade ago that the then chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, uttered those confident words about this great national project.

Much, of course, has changed since then, and depressingly so, but the broad arguments in favour of HS2 remain as compelling as they have ever been.

If, as the story broken by The Independent suggests, the project is to be further dismembered with the abandonment of the lines to Crewe and Manchester, it would be an act of betrayal. It will blight both the economic future of communities in the North and the Tories’ electoral chances in the many seats in the region they gained after the Brexit referendum. The stakes, in every sense, are high.

HS2 is already a sadly denuded scheme. The once-planned sections that would have revolutionised connectivity for Leeds, York and (especially) Newcastle have long since been shelved. The result is that these regions, for so long “left behind”, will once again be marginalised economically – and much less able to attract investment.

Now, Manchester and the North West of England are to suffer the same demoralising setbacks. And these all come on top of the cuts to so-called Northern Powerhouse Rail, which once offered so much hope to other great cities such as Bradford.

If the Conservatives wanted to send out a signal as loud and clear as a red light that they were demoting and downgrading a large section of the nation, they could scarcely have done more. HS2, if the fears of further cuts are confirmed, will do nothing for the North. Moreover, it will do little or nothing to raise the overall growth rate of the economy if it becomes an additional line of service from London to Birmingham and East Midlands Parkway (a stop that still has no public transport link to East Midlands airport).

HS2, first conceived in the days of the Brown government, was supposed to help unlock the potential of the whole of the nation. What, it must be asked, will do so now?

Railway projects are best approached with the same spirit of confidence and long-term thinking that the Victorians adopted, including the great railroad barons of the 19th century. It should be a matter of immense pride – and inspiration – that the first public railway to use steam locomotives was opened in 1825, running from Stockton to Darlington in the days when the North didn’t need to call for assistance from the South for its economic development. It would be fitting if, in 2025, a British government was able to give a commitment to send HS2 to the North East. Sadly, that seems unlikely given the present gloomy mood.

It is not how it should be, and the national French and Japanese railways show what can be done with ambition, vision and ultra-long-term thinking. The costs of HS2 are higher than anticipated, rising – and becoming fatally undermined – by inflation and higher interest rates. But the yields from such a transformative project should be available to future generations for centuries, powered by green electrified power lines. The fiscal rule for railway investment should be that it is, in principle, right to borrow to invest in much-needed public infrastructure – because the project should pay for itself over the very long run.

So much for the economics. The political consequences of this final abandonment cannot be overstated. Ever since the Conservatives returned to office in 2010, there has been windy talk about Northern potential and powerhouses.

Hardly a week would pass without some minister or other parading around with a hard hat and a hi-vis jacket on in some photoshoot. Such high-profile activity enjoyed added boosterism once Boris Johnson set his sights on the party leadership. Now, there seems very little indeed to show for it.

The Tories might win back a few votes around the home counties, where the construction work has been heavy and intrusive, but the electoral damage in the blue wall inflicted already – and by Brexit – is far greater.

Now, the Tories seem determined to alienate their remaining support in the North. This is no way to run a railway, nor to win an election.