The Gulf of Oman attack threw gas on already fiery US-Iran tensions – now the world may have to pay the price

Who is responsible for the destruction of two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman, putting 60 lives at risk and further destabilising the region?

It is probably the same people behind the mining of four vessels off the coast of the United Arab Emirates on 12 May. According to the UAE and the United States – which has a substantial naval presence in the area – it is the work of a “state actor”, very likely Iran. The Iranians deny the charge.

Further forensic examination and the involvement of the United Nations Security Council may yield more clues and provide better grounds for suspecting Iran. However, in this context, it almost doesn’t matter who was behind the sabotage. In a region where truth is seldom glimpsed at the best of times, myths, legends and conspiracies can prove every bit as powerful as fact. If the Americans and their UAE and Saudi allies think the Iranians did it, then that is enough for them to ratchet up their aggression towards Iran.

The attacks come at an especially difficult time for the region. The Gulf states of Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been fighting merciless proxy wars with Iran in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and elsewhere for some years. Israel, Turkey, Russia, America and other powers have been dragged in from time to time. With its instability, intrigues and shifting alliances, the Iran-Saudi rivalry is reminiscent of the Balkans in the run-up to the First World War, and of relations between America and the Soviet Union in the Cold War. These are not encouraging precedents.

The best that can probably be hoped for is that the low-level attacks continue with little more than nuisance value. But they may not, and they are becoming a global problem. These merchant vessels carry fuel for many nations as they navigate the Strait of Hormuz – so the ambushes involve otherwise neutral parties such as, in the case of the recent attacks, Norway, Japan and Taiwan. The attacks also caused a spike in the oil price of around $4 a barrel, something that will affect every corner of the planet. Around a third of the world’s oil passes through these waters.

So the attacks do matter, and the point of greatest sensitivity and danger is the intersection of American and Iranian interests. America under President Trump regards Iran as nothing more than a rogue state, and has scrapped the nuclear treaty with Iran that France, Britain and Germany still adhere to. President Trump seems to delight in winding up the Iranians; and they return the insults to “The Great Satan”. Behind their regional rivalry and alliances (including what seems to be an informal one between Saudi Arabia and Israel), is a four-decade-long history of unrelenting bitterness and hatred.

Ever since the fall of the Shah, the rise of the Islamic Republic and the American hostage crisis in 1979-81, America and Iran have staged a virtually continuous proxy war of their own. This includes the notorious covert US support and arming of Iraq in the bloody Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s (in which American efforts were aided and abetted by the British government).

At this stage, it is difficult to see any easy path to defusing tensions between Washington and Tehran. Relations are close to an all-time low, and the total lack of dialogue and understanding between the two sides appears a further insuperable obstacle to bringing peace to the Middle East. The very narrowness of the Strait of Hormuz – the shipping lane is only two miles wide at its narrowest – makes it an ideal spot for interaction and terrorism.

The seas to the south were for some years happy hunting ground for Somali pirates, for example. By the same token, it should also be relatively easy to police through a multinational naval force – exactly of the type that pushed back the Somali pirates a few years ago. If the Iranians are acting only covertly and without claiming responsibility, that suggests it might not openly confront other navies.

Meantime, innocent civilians in Yemen and Syria, and merchant ships and their crews, will continue to suffer from a war that is none of their making.