Once again, Boris Johnson is playing catch-up when it comes to Covid-19

Did Boris Johnson hesitate to prevent travel from India when he had the chance to delay the arrival of the Indian variant of Covid-19?

The health secretary, Matt Hancock, dismisses that as “Captain Hindsight” speculation, which is not exactly a total refutation of the charge.

The prime minister says that the case numbers in the subcontinent were low at the relevant time, yet restrictions on travellers from Pakistan and Bangladesh were imposed. But then again the prime minister isn’t trying to prise a much-needed trade deal from the leaders of those nations. He is, though, trying to ingratiate himself with Narendra Modi, prime minister of India.

There have been growing concerns about the B.1.167.2 variant for some time, and the prime minister himself acknowledged them during his press conference a week ago, slipping them in, cynically, to suit his purpose of delaying the public inquiry into his handling of the crisis.

Perhaps the prime minister is entirely transparent in his account of decision making, and followed the data and the science, as he so often claims. For the moment, his culpability in risking a possible third wave is not the immediate concern – trying to stop it is.

It appears clear that the latest variant is more infectious, though by how much isn’t yet understood. For the vaccinated, that may not be such a great risk to health as it was last year, but for those unvaccinated, the news that a more infective variant is on the increase will likely be concerning.

The variant may be more prevalent in Bolton and parts of London, but even regional “tiered” lockdowns will not stop its further spread completely. So the government is playing catch-up, again. Accelerating the second dosage and “surge” testing will no doubt help, but ministers will likely need to look again at postponing at least some aspects of the unlock, or even reversing it.

They wish to wait to see the data as it evolves over the coming weeks, but the scientists, from what can be gleaned, are more cautious – and somewhat divided – on the best course of action. Yet if the last year ought to have taught us anything, it is that relaxing lockdown too early only means another, harsher, lockdown later on.

We’ve been here before, in other words, and we hardly need hindsight to understand what is happening. Proceeding with the roadmap as it stands is a gamble. Once again the prime minister is playing with people’s lives; he had better be sure he is right.