The UK is in a race of infection vs injection – and lockdown may be part of the equation

It seems only a matter of time before virtually the whole of Britain will be placed in tier 4, and thus subject to a further national lockdown comparable at least to the one in November. 

Indeed, the discovery of a further mutated version of the coronavirus, apparently this time emanating from South Africa, it is perfectly possible that next time round the schools will be closed. As things stand they are already due to have their new terms staggered and delayed. For the nation’s children, the holiday season may well stretch far into January.

The early indications are that the South African variant, like the British one, is more transmissible than the first version of the virus. There is also some suggestion that one or other might affect children and younger people more severely than has been the case hitherto.

The encouraging news remains the vaccine, and the optimism shown by the scientists that these variants will still be susceptible to the antibodies generated via the various vaccines. Even if they are not, the aim would likely be to adapt the existing vaccine.

The more worrying thought is that the rollout of the vaccine may be slower than hoped, while the variants may spread more rapidly than feared. Thus the race between injection and infection may be being lost. 

If younger Covid patients fall as ill as their parents and grandparents then the potential strain on the NHS this spring will be even more intense than last year. In 2021, then, things may get worse before they get better.

If these trends pick up, and the nation does return to lockdown, then there needs to be an economic response, once again. The public health care and the economic case for further support to business and families is as strong as ever, and holds for as long as the Treasury is able to fund its yawning deficits. Some official thinking does, though, need to be done about the options, if borrowing becomes more difficult or expensive.

Unlike across a large part of 2020, however, the arrival of a vaccine is established fact, and the challenge is to scale up production and distribution. We can only hope that the appalling failures in the test and trace system are not repeated with the new vaccines.