“This is our time [...] We must rise to the occasion.” It is not yet entirely clear that Alok Sharma’s plea to the Cop26 summit will “keep 1.5 alive”. The secretary-general of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres, says that this Glasgow target is “on life support”, which is hardly encouraging. Mr Sharma is fond, proud even, of his sobriquet of “No Drama Sharma”, but perhaps a slightly greater sense of urgency might have helped things along. Calmness and quiet diplomacy are fine, but not when they induce a coma.
Of course, that barnstorming call to arms was the principal job of the prime minister, but he wasn’t around for long enough to make success more of a certainty earlier on. No doubt another blame game for what the critics will call Flop26 will soon start up. At any rate it wasn’t such an auspicious outing for post-Brexit, “Global Britain”. On coal, cars, cash and trees, Mr Johnson’s key tests of success, there have been setbacks.
Phasing out fossil fuels, for example, could have been the landmark achievement of this conference but, once again there is not much evidence that all of the many large economies that still rely on selling or burning fossil fuels, or both, are ready to make that absolute – but absolutely clear – commitment. In the draft declaration there was a weakening on the language on hydrocarbons. Much the same goes for the timidity of the pledges on methane and deforestation.
It is certainly asking a lot of developing countries and emerging economies hoping to follow the historical western path to industrialisation and prosperity. There are still too few financial incentives to divert them fast enough onto an alternative, more sustainable journey, and nor is there sufficient funding for adaptation and mitigation. Nonetheless, those countries have to understand, like every other nation, that with catastrophic climate change, there won’t be much point in raising the trend rate of economic growth because nature will cancel all of it and more.
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One of the greatest of the disappointments of the Glasgow conference is the betrayal of coastal states and smaller and poorer island nations, from Barbados to Bangladesh to Tuvalu, left to cope with the worst effects of rising sea levels, inflicted on them by America, Europe, China and the rest during their economic development. Western powers and emerging economies such as China and India are asking these poorer nations to limit their greenhouse gas emissions at the same time as depriving them of the means – the funds – to generate renewable electricity and deploy higher tech ways to deliver higher living standards for expanding populations. Such is the complaint, for example, of Brazil, where pressure of development is destroying the rainforest. So far, from what Mr Johnson claims, “the great chainsaw massacre” is far from over.
The best that can be said for Cop26 is that the scale of the challenges, and the dangers, were once again brought home to world leaders and their populations. Progress has been made – it has not been a comprehensive failure – and there is some hope that delivery can now meet modestly set but realistic targets.
Perhaps Cop27, in Egypt, will be a greater success.
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