The Conservative Party conference isn’t as expected – the chatter about Boris Johnson’s leadership has begun

Obviously, this year’s Conservative Party conference isn’t going to be quite as planned. Quite apart from the exigencies of Covid-19, what was supposed to be a champagne-soaked victory rally will be more like a rather lonely Zoom-based wake. The government’s disastrous handling of the coronavirus crisis has put quite the dampener on things.

Instead of an exciting new agenda for Global Britain in the world and levelling up living standards at home, the Tories will be fretting about the coming recession, mass unemployment, broken public finances, tax rises and cuts to public spending. The response to the public health crisis and local lockdowns has given rise to a new round of Tory wars, while Brexit seems far from being an “oven ready” done deal. Chatter about the leadership is getting louder.

The contemporary Tory addiction to plotting, splits and rebellions, picked up during its civil war over Europe, looks to be as strong as ever. Such bad habits have quickly rendered Mr Johnson’s nominal working majority, of 87 or so, irrelevant. Some 40 or 50 backbenchers can easily be recruited in an afternoon to defy the whips over Brexit or some Covid-19 regulations.  A swift U-turn is the usual result. On some days, Mr Johnson’s government seems hardly stronger than it did when he had no overall majority at all. Even Theresa May is causing trouble, giving Mr Johnson a small taste of what he put her through.

What’s more, the political weather has changed for the better for the other parties. The Conservatives, arguably for the first time since Tony Blair quit in 2007, now face a determined and competent opposition. Sir Keir Starmer has consistently humiliated Mr Johnson in debate, while a resurgent SNP are relentlessly pursuing a second independence referendum. Jo Swinson’s calamitous gamble on a general election last year has left the Liberal Democrats marginalised; progressive voters south of Scotland are coalescing behind Sir Keir, which has helped Labour eliminate the Tories’ poll lead. Mr Johnson, it is plain, dearly misses Jeremy Corbyn. Alas, those easy days are gone.

The news that the Conservative Party is going to establish an official HQ presence in the great city of Leeds is of course very welcome news. It is a symbolic gesture towards the north, and one of goodwill towards the so-called “red wall” seats and voters who have defected to the new, populist Conservatives under Mr Johnson (though the general trend predated his arrival in Downing Street). Conceivably it might remind the Conservatives that there is right-wing life beyond the Home Counties. However, it is mostly performative, and Mr Johnson and his colleagues will need better and more eye-catching initiatives than that to take back control of the political agenda.

The danger is that, fresh out of ideas and money, the party will fall back on culture wars instead. The flag and values agenda has the great advantages of having been tried and tested in the Brexit battles, and of being virtually cost-free. Installing union flags behind every minister appearing in public, for example, or telling the BBC to let people sing Rule Britannia, has no implications for the Treasury. Neither does installing right-wing journalists to oversee the BBC and Ofcom, the media regulator. 

The migrant crisis, which continues and will persist, irrespective of Brexit, ought to show a Tory weakness. Simply because a decade of Conservative-led governments have failed to live up to their self-imposed objective of reducing migration to the tens of thousands. Under the cynical manipulations of Priti Patel, the issue will no doubt be turned again to the advantage of the Tory party. And they will still be flogging Brexit to death, claiming no deal will be a good result and deriding Sir Keir for being “on the EU’s side”, and anti-British.

Such attack lines against the opposition will have to do for now, while coronavirus and Brexit present more pressing challenges. No doubt Mr Johnson will be at his most boosterish, even with such a terrible Covid-19 death toll overshadowing the proceedings. In some digital metaphorical way, Mr Johnson will get his usual standing ovation, albeit an invisible silent one. 

Yet none of that ritual obeisance will stop the Conservatives wondering whether Mr Johnson is the man to see them safely to another term in power in 2024. For now, they must give him the benefit of the doubt – because the coronavirus and Brexit crises are intensifying. 

If Mr Johnson gets a grip and delivers results then he will be fine; if not the party will hardly give a second thought to ditching him, and appeals to loyalty and unity from Mr Johnson rung very hollow given his track record. The doubts about his future are potent and growing. This time next year Mr Johnson might find himself back in the media tent rather than on the platform giving the keynote address.