The Tories, even with a new leader, need huge change to be effective in opposition

Despite the near-universal – and understandable – indifference displayed by the public towards the future of the Conservative Party, what it does and who leads it matters.

It is, despite the pretensions of Nigel Farage and his tiny band of parliamentary cranks, the only party that can form an alternative government, either at a moment of national crisis or more routinely at the next general election. Its leader, however inexperienced or inadequate, may be the next prime minister of the United Kingdom.

Even if they are not going to make it to No 10, they will obviously be leader of the opposition, and thus principally responsible for ensuring the Labour government is scrutinised and accountable – properly and fairly, or at least so far as Westminster’s adversarial habits permit.

So yes, whether Kemi Badenoch on the right of the party, or Robert Jenrick, teetering on the small space to the right of Ms Badenoch, gets the gig does indeed matter, as does the method of their selection.

Sadly, through bitter experience, it can be seen that putting the final choice of leader, and often therefore of prime minister, to Conservative Party members has proved, on the whole, a deeply unsatisfactory process since the procedure was set up by William Hague more than two decades ago. It has yielded two outright duffers – Iain Duncan Smith in 2001 and, far more disastrously, Liz Truss in 2022, as well as the high-risk election of Boris Johnson in 2019, who turned out to be even worse than feared.

Curiously, the leaders who simply emerged from the process with no need for an election, effectively the choice of the parliamentary party, tended to be the more sane, pragmatic and responsible – Michael Howard, Theresa May and Rishi Sunak. David Cameron’s record is so mixed, fell so below his promise and was so permanently disfigured by the Brexit referendum that the membership can’t really be thanked or blamed for choosing him in 2005.

The Tory system should be changed but neither Ms Badenoch nor Mr Jenrick look likely to pick an immediate fight with the grassroots about disenfranchising them. It would feel a bit ungrateful.

How will the new leader fare? Probably better than looked possible even in the early hours of 5 July 2024. It is a fact, and one that perhaps has not yet fully sunk in, that the Tories suffered their worst defeat in history for a reason, and that reason – incompetence – they find difficult to process.

Yet their recovery has got off to an unexpected spirited start thanks to the missteps of the new Labour administration. The “freebies”, the whiff of cronyism, the dithering and delays, the perceived lack of purpose, even the Budget, have all suggested an administration still finding the transition from opposition difficult.

Without a new leader, and with Mr Sunak and Jeremy Hunt in valedictory mode, the Tories are actually up in the opinion polls. It would be unfortunate if their ratings were now to fall once the public finds out who the new leader is.

It’s early days, of course. There are four or five years to go before the next general election, and no doubt the Labour government will in due course settle down and get more adept at decision-making.

Yet right now, it doesn’t feel impossible that the Conservatives could regroup, revive and at least deprive Labour of its (somewhat artificially) inflated majority next time around. The Tories might even win, given the economic prospects outlined in the Budget and the demonstrable volatility of the electorate.

Sir Keir’s personal ratings, never stellar, have collapsed, and the Budget, the mission-defining event, has not landed well. Britain is not crying out for the return of the Tories but the voters may be prepared to give them a hearing sooner than expected.

In any case, either Mr Jenrick or Ms Badenoch will deserve congratulations for seeing through the campaign to win the "prize" of the toughest job in politics. Neither has previously spent a day as an opposition MP, let alone taken on PMQs and all their official duties.

The Tory party is fractious and addicted to intrigue. Ms Badenoch promises more “fun” but her colleagues may make her life hellish. So we wish them and their colleagues well in terms of holding ministers to account and crafting alternative practical and humane policies worthy of the attention and respect of the electorate.

The aim should be to repair the reputation of the Conservative Party, build a viable, honest alternative administration and, thus, restore a little faith in politics. If history is any guide, leading an opposition party out of the wilderness and back to the centre ground will be a difficult and thankless task. Good luck with that.