The next Conservative leader should come clean to their party over Brexit

Could it really be, as Lord Heseltine says, that “if Boris goes, Brexit goes”?

That may seem at first glance an outlandish notion, given the way the Eurosceptic extreme right has captured the Conservatives at grassroots level and in parliament. Any leadership contender advocating even a modest rapprochement with Brussels would soon find themselves eliminated in what Mr Johnson calls his party’s “Darwinist” system for leadership elections. Lord Heseltine himself, a former deputy prime minister, had the whip removed during the purge of 2019, after all.

Still, he has a point. Such is the damage that Brexit is inflicting on the nation that any new prime minister will be forced to do something about it – unless they want to preside over a stagnant economy unable to support living standards and public services without huge state borrowing. Electoral oblivion would soon follow.

Brexit has meant even higher inflation than in other countries because of a devalued pound, shortages of labour pushing up wages, and extra costs and disrupted supply lines in and out of Europe. Exports are stymied and the trade deficit is running at unsustainable levels. Business confidence and investment has been depressed since the referendum in 2016, which means lower productivity growth and therefore lower growth in real wages.

There is then no such thing as “making Brexit work”, the misguided policy of both main parties, and there are scant “opportunities” attached to it.

Brexit is also plainly incompatible with the Good Friday Agreement, and thus peace in Ireland; and it has given an unwelcome boost to Nicola Sturgeon’s bid for separation (in which she uses much the same arguments as the Brexiteers did in 2016). This is a far from satisfactory state of affairs for the Conservative and Unionist Party.

The next prime minister, in other words, will be forced, by sheer force of economic and political circumstance, to reset the UK’s relationship with Europe, just as figures such as Michel Barnier and Michael Martin have suggested. Mr Johnson was Mr Brexit, and his rumbustious, aggressive style – especially towards France – proved extremely counterproductive over the channel crossings.

With Mr Johnson gone, that reset will be far easier to achieve, whether the new prime minister is a nominal Leaver or a Remainer. Adopting basic and sensible European phytosanitary and veterinary standards would ease much of the problems at the Northern Irish customs border, and render the pernicious and unlawful Northern Ireland Protocol Bill redundant. That alone would open up scientific cooperation and the Horizon Scheme to the UK.

By the same token, fresh compromises over fishing and financial services – a continuing source of friction – would be of mutual benefit to both sides. President Macron’s suggestion of an EU outer ring, the reborn European Community, is one that the British could take up profitably, adding defence and security dimensions to the UK-EU relationship. That, in turn, could unlock further easing of the trade relationship. Given the severe shortages of skilled and unskilled labour, EU workers could be offered better access under the new points-based visa system.

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Perhaps these are things that Sir Keir Starmer has in mind too. But he is being disingenuous with voters and himself when he rules out future membership of the EU, the single market or the customs union. After all the time and effort he spent making a passionate and rational case against Brexit, no one now believes he is a hard Brexiteer. It’s simply not credible, against the national interest, and means that Labour – like the Tories – will lose ground to the Liberal Democrats and the SNP.

There is much that can be done, practically, to defuse tensions and make life better for British and EU citizens alike, by beginning to recast Brexit and work for a closer partnership. Sooner or later, whoever wins this wide-open contest will have to tell their party and the country the truth about Brexit, and persuade an increasingly receptive electorate that the deal negotiated by Mr Johnson was neither “oven ready” nor “fantastic”.

It will need great political skill but it will surely happen. A wise candidate for leader and prime minister should be as candid with their selectorate as they can, and keep their options open. It will help them win the next election.