Brecon signals the potential in a Remain alliance – and the futility of Labour’s timid Brexit stance

Properly speaking, the new MP for Brecon and Radnorshire, Jane Dodds, should style herself as the first parliamentary representative of the nascent Remain Alliance. It has a certain ring to it.

The Liberal Democrats would probably have won in any case, but the margin of victory would have been rather less convincing. Ms Dodds and Jo Swinson would do well to remember that, and to thank Green and Plaid Cymru supporters for supporting the greater good and leaving party rivalry aside.

Brecon set an excellent example of what could be achieved with a much closer alignment of the pro-Remain and pro-Final Say referendum parties.

Of course the Labour Party refused to join in this cause, for reasons that are pathetically obvious. Much good it did them; their vote was squeezed and they were fortunate to save their deposit: a dismal showing and to no great avail.

There are signs that Wales will follow Scotland and fall out of love with its previous permanent political force, in favour of the nationalists. Labour cannot afford to lose more of its old bedrock support. It heralds permanent opposition, given that it has so rarely ever won a Commons majority in England alone.

Labour’s Brexit policy still lacks the clarity that the party – supporters and members – demand. Jeremy Corbyn’s political career has been a four-decade long study in obstinacy, and he is evidently not about to change his ways now.

Despite signs of a shift in tone, he has been persuaded that his policy of “constructive ambiguity” served him well in 2017 (though he lost), and will do so again, against the mountain of evidence that it is now starting to satisfy neither Remain nor Leave voters. Labour has lost, and stands to lose, far more votes to the Liberal Democrats and the SNP and Plaid in its key seats than to either the Brexit Party or the Conservatives.

For as long as Mr Corbyn insists on fracturing the pro-EU vote he will be complicit in the no-deal Brexit outcome being “assumed” by the Johnson administration. If it comes to pass Labour will have harmed its “people” far more than the Rees-Moggs of this world, and especially those working in manufacturing areas and the public services.

Mr Corbyn should be aware of what he is about to, albeit inadvertently, inflict on them – a depression that might make the 1980s slump look like happy days. If he cannot or will not change the party’s stance on Europe and on cooperating with the other parties, at least on this issue, then it should get itself a leader who will. Otherwise Mr Corbyn will go down in history as the man who handed the 2020s to the Conservatives.

For now, the Conservatives should be packing away their early election plans. It is true that their lead over Labour is larger than it has been, and that Mr Johnson has re-energised the party to a degree – but the rise of the Brexit Party and the Liberal Democrats and Scottish and Welsh nationalists could produce some highly perverse results under the first-past-the-post system.

The revival of the two big parties at the 2017 election has gone into reverse, and the Commons could easily see 100 non-Labour and non-Conservative MPs returned in an autumn general election, that is before Brexit is resolved, one way or another.

After Brexit? Politics will be another country, and it is possible that Mr Johnson could do much better than now, especially if he contrives to leave with a deal. The Brexit Party and Liberal Democrats challenge would subside, and a weak Labour Party looks unlikely to put up much of a challenge to a slippery man with a sharp line of attack, and who seems to enjoy spending and borrowing public money even more than John McDonnell.

The shadow chancellor may well be right in claiming that the Conservatives are being reckless with the public finances, but he and his party are probably not the best messenger for the merits of prudence.

The Brecon result also merits another small footnote in history for the Monster Raving Loony Party which outstripped the rump and leaderless Ukip by 334 votes to 242. In 1990 the Loonies managed to kill off the continuing SDP, led by David Owen, which then announced it would wind itself up.

Their leader, Alan “Howling Laud” Hope, will no doubt be amused, but he should be concerned that his party is no longer the craziest bunch around in British politics – they can be found in the cabinet and, indeed, the shadow cabinet. After all, as Emily Thornberry remarked, Labour would be off their rockers not to back Remain in a fresh Brexit referendum. The madness of King Jeremy must end soon.