Be careful what you wish for – Boris Johnson’s successor could be a whole lot worse

Strange to say, the greatest threat to the prime minister’s position derives not from “partygate”, sleaze or even his sunken approval ratings, dismal as they all are, but from some rather conventional issues of policy: plan B, net zero and the tax hikes announced in the Budget.

A significant proportion of his backbenchers now regard Boris Johnson as a “socialist”, or possibly something worse, given that he still purports to be some kind of Conservative. Indeed, some say as much without much prompting in the House of Commons and on the airwaves. They make no secret of their disappointment in him, heightened for many of them by the glaringly unfinished business of Brexit. Similar levels of disappointment, if not despair, can be detected in surveys of opinion among Tory party members.

In the great scheme of things, many are rather less concerned about Allegra Stratton, Owen Paterson’s side hustles or who paid for the refurbishment of the Downing Street flat; what horrifies them is tax, borrowing, refugees, jab passports and the “national debate” on mandatory Covid vaccination. They’re not too keen on abolishing domestic gas and oil boilers, either.

Strange to say, too, Mr Johnson is broadly on the right (ie correct) side of these arguments. Though deeply unfair and inadequate to the task, the social care plan does at least preserve the notion of a role for the state and public support for long-term care. The underpinning of the economy through investment in infrastructure, funded via borrowing, is essential to boosting productivity and the long-term growth of the economy. Mr Johnson, again though too timid in many ways, is also right to stick to the plan for net zero and to decarbonise the economy. And if the science points to increased use of face coverings, working from home, vaccine passports and a “debate” on mandatory Covid vaccines, then the government is prudent to take the precautions it has this week.

In that sense, and deeply corrupted though his administration is, things under an alternative Tory leader from the reactionary right, such as Liz Truss, would be even worse.

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For Mr Johnson’s climate-denying, Covid-denying, economic fundamentalists, it is all too much to bear. Without Labour support in the upcoming parliamentary votes on plan B, and with the opposition parties ranged against him, Mr Johnson would face almost certain defeat in implementing his relatively modest proposals. Mercifully, there is no chance of that happening next week.

Of all the gripes of the Tory right, the one issue that would compel many of these libertarians to ditch Mr Johnson summarily is mandatory vaccination. To them it is not a matter of public health being balanced against the freedom of the individual but an abomination that cannot be countenanced, even if the alternative means loss of life on an unprecedented scale. There are many in the Tory ranks who quietly believe that Covid is little worse than the flu, and that, even if it isn’t, the country must “learn to live with” high death rates among the vulnerable and permanent unbearable pressure on the NHS.

There are many reasons to wish that Boris Johnson wasn’t in No 10; but his replacement, chosen by Tory MPs and about 200,000 mostly reactionary members, is not going to be a liberal.